CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - January 9, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese futures traded both sides of unchanged ultimately turning higher on good volume and rising open interest as spot cheese firmed Monday. Block cheese gained 2.25 cents on 6 trades while barrel cheese increased 4.50 cents on 4. The futures trade firmed despite the premium to spot already in place but the most interesting part of yesterday’s trade is that open interest increased. With over 1,800 Class III contracts trading and 517 Cheese futures changing hands, open interest increased by 383 Class III and 210 Cheese.
On more than one occasion and yesterday, we pointed out the massive Managed Money net short position in both Class III and Cheese. The “other” category – those who carry smaller positions either as hedges or speculatively – are also increasingly short these Class III and Cheese contracts. Despite yesterday’s bump to prices, the overarching trend for both markets is down and the people (Managed Money) who are in the market to make money are short and presumably still expecting weakness. The risk here is the same as it was a month ago: short-covering.
From a technical – or chart - perspective, nearby Class III and Cheese are expected to firm more now. But it may be orderly and slow. We’ll likely need to see something more bullish for the market to be gripped by buyer panic we haven’t seen in months. With the annual IDFA conference just two short weeks away, we wonder what the market moving news will be in the hallways of the JW Marriott in Scottsdale.
Butter futures continued to their multi-day slide after nearby contracts re-tested futures highs set back in September last week. Spot Butter fell 4.5 cents to $253.000 on 3 trades as the butter market is “appropriately priced” between $245.000 and $267.000 – it’s most recent 7-week trading range. At least that is an appropriate market clearing price looking backward. Futures weakness was relegated to the first half of 2024 contracts with 205 contracts changing hands and open interest up 102 contracts. End-user buy side interest remains alive and well and likely a few pennies below current at $245.000-$250.000 for the Jan or Feb to December timeframe.
Spot NFDM firmed slightly Monday but remains quite sideways. For the last 7-weeks, spot NFDM has sat between $1.1550 and $1.1900 as the market clears product in a very orderly fashion. Futures were mixed Monday but also directionally sideways. We hear comments from our colleague in Singapore that China continues to rely more heavily on their domestic supply of SMP. On the other hand, SGX WMP futures were strong today (along with some firming in EU SMP) as traders sift through the fallout a December 31 fire in a dairy raw materials storage unit in the Algerian municipality of Bourguiga. The warehouse contains approximately 10,000 – 12,000 tonnes of milk powder, according to several market sources. They wasted little time in what appeared to be an attempt to rebuild lost inventories as a new Onil tender occurred yesterday.
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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