CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - November 8, 2023
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
We’ll call yesterday’s GDT auction result net neutral – or really mixed. GDT fell short of the futures price expectations, but was stronger than the recent GDT pulse events (except for WMP, which was weaker than recent pulse events). The GDT price index moved lower by 0.7% on the heels of weak butter and WMP performance. AMF and SMP prices moved higher across all contracts this week. This was the first decline in the GDT price index since August. The strength in SMP is in stark contrast to the sharply lower prices at the prior two GDT Pulse auctions.
Conversations around Chinese demand have been swirling around the market a fair amount recently. These questions seemed to be answered in part this week as North Asia purchases (which includes China) have increased from both last event and last year. Southeast Asian purchased volume was down from last event and were flat with year-ago levels.
Class III and Cheese markets continued their rather orderly decline yesterday as barrel selling continued in earnest. Blocks, too, closed lower but by just 0.25 with no trades giving the impression that the market is comfortable around $1.70. Seven loads of barrel cheese did trade, however, and there were seven unfilled bids left on the board. Just one offer. Still, the sellers are the aggressors this week in the barrel market and the only caveat is that the price is likely within spitting distance of enticing some potential export business. So we don’t see a significant amount of downside from here but we also don’t see any indication that sellers are slowing just yet.
Class III and Cheese volume surged Tuesday with over 1,400 Class III and nearly 900 Cheese contracts changing hands. And open interest is on the rise suggesting more than a little new selling here as nearby contracts make new lows. Dry Whey futures also saw a surge in trading volume with 210 futures contracts changing hands and open interest up by 163 with much of the volume clearly trading in the mid-40 cent range thru December 2024.
Given the speculative interest in being short both Class III and Cheese, we’d suggest that at least part of the selling is those guys weighing on the market. Producers are not aggressively selling down here – at least nearby – and instead are looking at longer term hedge scenarios today if anything. With corn finishing just above it’s 3-month low yesterday, more than a few people are projecting better feed prices to come, which would certainly help dairy farmers today. Of course those “new lows” haven’t yet happened, so we could be looking at a ‘double-bottom’ for the corn market, which has largely been sideways the past 3 or so months, but we digress.
Spot butter pushed under $3.00/lb. for the first time since Thursday September 21 yesterday as the price fell 11.75 cents to $2.8975 on 12 trades. We mentioned in our update yesterday that there is some bit of technical support to the market around $2.85 to $2.90, so for today we feel special. But we also mentioned that fundamentals change and high priced markets like butter can destroy technical analysis as fundamentals change. Still, finding bids as markets roll over is somewhat surprising so for now we expect the market to clear around $2.90 short term.
Butter futures slipped yesterday on 210 contracts of trading volume and an open interest increase of 70 contracts. We’ve mentioned the good two-sided trade around the $2.50 market in 2024 and that remarkable flat market continues to trade largely sideways around that number (or just below here recently). From our vantage point, end-users appear to be much more engaged with setting 2024 budgets on Butter and NFDM today than on Cheese, for example. This dynamic will likely change in time, but for now we expect to see continued stability to 2024 prices around current levels today.
NFDM futures were modestly higher yesterday with in, perhaps, a modest nod to firming SMP price action during the GDT event. We’ve mentioned the ‘corrective’ nature of the NFDM futures trade over the past several weeks. Even before GDT, sell side interest seemed to have wain and the market seemed to have corrected enough. Spot NFDM moved lower once again – down 0.50 to $117.0000 yesterday – which may bring in some short-term headwinds on a market that appears to be carving out a sideways trade around current levels now.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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