The El Niño cocoa impact is landing unevenly across producing regions, with Indonesia suffering the sharpest productivity losses, Ecuador taking heavier rain and Brazil seeing less of it. In West Africa, the main producing region, irregular rain in June and July is already affecting the main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana. A strengthening El Niño toward the end of the year also raises the risk of harsher Harmattan winds over the following mid-crop. The cocoa market remains highly sensitive to the weather pattern after the 2023 El Niño set off years of disruption, so every regional shift feeds straight into supply expectations.
Lucca Bezzon, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, covers global soft commodity markets from Campinas, tracking supply and demand balances in cocoa and coffee. His work follows production flows across West Africa, emerging producers and Brazil's harvests, along with the industrial demand shifts that move cocoa prices.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Indonesia records the largest El Niño cocoa productivity losses, with sharp drops in rainfall and soil moisture.
Ecuador sees heavier rain in El Niño years, and Brazil sees lower precipitation.
Irregular June and July rain is already affecting the West African cocoa main crop.
Indonesian Cocoa Output Takes the Heaviest El Niño Losses
The El Niño risk to global cocoa supply is not confined to West Africa. Indonesia is taking the heaviest El Niño cocoa losses of any producing country. Indonesian growing areas have seen a steep fall in both rainfall and soil moisture.
Ecuador and Brazil Cocoa Farms Swing to Opposite Rain Extremes
"Ecuador is quite the opposite. Ecuador usually has bigger rains in Niño years", Bezzon explains, pointing to the other side of the El Niño weather pattern. Ecuador has already recorded an increase in rainfall. Too much rain can also reduce cocoa productivity, although the effect is too early to measure. Brazil's cocoa regions are moving the other way, with precipitation diminishing. In practice, El Niño is hitting Indonesian, Ecuadorian and Brazilian cocoa through different mechanisms at the same time. For the supply picture, that means no single weather signal tells the whole story.
West African Cocoa Main Crop Shows Early Rain Distortion
West Africa's cocoa main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana is already showing the effects of irregular rainfall, although the damage so far is smaller than in Indonesia. Heavier than expected rain in June arrived while the beans were still developing. According to Bezzon, "in June, in July, we've seen some type of distortion related to precipitation, which is already having impacts on the main crop right now". The seasonal delivery peak between October and December will therefore show how far the weather has cut into West African volumes. A weaker main crop would tighten a market that only recently rebuilt its stocks.
Download the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
