Exclusive Interview: Euromonitor Sees Cold Coffee as Biggest Consumption Trend

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Fri, 08 Mar 2024, 20:33

Alexis Rubinstein

Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The COVID pandemic has had an ongoing impact on global coffee consumption. First, the shutdown significantly impacted worldwide out-of-home consumption, but although most restrictions have been lifted, the coffee market is still dealing with the aftermath. “The post covid inflation wave is still having an impact on coffee demand,” Matthew Barry, Beverage Consultant at Euromonitor told CoffeeNetwork on the sidelines of the NCA Convention in Nashville. “At first, people were more tolerant of price increases, but at their budgets get tighter and tighter, all items in the grocery store are facing demand challenges,” Because of cost, along with environmental concerns and vulnerability of Arabica coffee, Barry believes that a shift towards more Robusta could very well be a long term trend. “Globally speaking, countries like India and Mexico who drink predominantly instant coffee use mostly Robusta, but I have heard a lot chatter about higher quality Robustas and, eventually, we may enter a time where it becomes irrational to keep paying Arabica prices,” he said.

In terms of trends, the once beloved single-serve has seen its heyday. For Euromonitor’s analysis purposes, the single-serve category now encompasses RTD, as most coffee drinks are one serving. Overall, single serve consumption in the US should continue to grow for the next 5 years. “US pod consumption, specifically, is expected to grow a moderate 2% on average per year going forward,” Barry said. The European market, including Central and Northern Europe where pods are the most popular, is seeing a decline.

But while the single serve craze may be reaching its end, the cold coffee market is poised to take its place. According to Barry, the fourth wave of coffee consumption is all about cold coffee. “Gen Z is not about the quality, tasting notes or coffee flavors,” he said, “There is a deemphasis on that, which could be the path for Robusta to enter a more dominant market.”

Instead of flavor profiles, the new coffee drinkers are focused on efficiency and trends. Apps, mobile purchases and viral drinks on tik tok have become the main driver of Gen Z coffee consumption.

But, the US is not alone in its coffee exploration. China, which passes the US in coffee outlet count and, according to Barry, will be the leading coffee shop market sometime in the near future, is also diving in to cutting edge coffee preparations. “Tea markets in general tend to be more experimental with their coffee,” said Barry, providing the number one reason why anything goes for coffee in China.

While cold coffee has detached from weather and is no longer specific to warm climates, Europe is slow to hop on the trend. “Going back to my observation about traditional tea-drinking markets, cold coffee is gaining momentum in the UK,” Barry said, “but the rest of Europe has yet to catch on.” This can most likely be attributed to the engrained, traditional coffee drinking European markets where coffee is enjoyed while lingering over a cup in a café. “Cold coffee doesn’t have that same social aspect,” he said.

But what will the increase of cold coffee demand mean for global consumption? While it is a general rule of thumb that cold coffee is more concentrated, implying that more coffee is being used, this is counteracted by any additives being used. “There is no unified answer yet as to whether more or less coffee is being used,” Barry concluded.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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