By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
In a "typical" year, phosphate values will decline coming out of the spring season. There are a lot of days between the end of spring and the start of fall applications. There are a lot of tons that are produced that cause producers to drop their values in order to bring demand forward. This is shaping up as a year that will buck that trend.
Not only have we seen values not break lower following the end of spring 2021, prices have actually been appreciating. Domestic U.S. producers know that demand is high enough right now and inventories low enough that they can continue to push prices higher. Barring any sort of a shock to the system (increased production/grain prices coming under fire), it is really hard to see phosphate values dipping over the next several months.
Just to make sure everyone here is up to date, Mosaic led the charge on placing Counter Vailing Duty rates against Moroccan and Russian phosphate producers. Simply put, any tons produced in either region and shipped to the U.S. market are now subject to a 20 - 50% duty rate. That makes it pretty hard for those tons to flow into the U.S.
It appears that Mosaic was not content with those rates. In the last month, they have sued the U.S. Government, stating that the rates were miscalculated (too low) and need to be reexamined. This is new territory for most that have tracked these cases in the past. I wish we could tell you how this will play out but we just do not have a past example to use. The market is in the dark until this case is finalized which means we are continuing to try and find the new normal.
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A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.
Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.
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