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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

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December '22 PHOSPHATES
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
josh.linville@stonex.com
Major global phosphate export location price graphs
I will have 2 graphs:  one that lists historical pricing in short tons and one in metric tons so that everyone can read it in a form they prefer.  All prices are listed in USD.  All prices are FOB or priced at their origin.
I will say this now and will say it going forward to eternity:  these are the flat price graphs for each individual location.  Your price where you are is going to be different.  There are logistics.  There is the cost of storage/interest/insurance/etc.  These graphs should not be taken as "it shows the price at $700,  why isn't my price $700".  These graphs should be used to give an appreciation for price movements thru 2022.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
For another month, I continue to see phosphate values trailing lower for the short term.
Across North America, the early fall indications are that demand was not as great as some had hoped for. That isn't surprising.  Farmers are preparing one of the most expensive crops they have ever planted and that will have them considering cutbacks.  Phosphate is a great place to start for those that spent years building soil levels.  We are also hearing reports that fall applicators are opting to wait until spring in hopes of price levels falling further.
Globally, it is much the same.  Demand seems to be far and few between which isn't giving the market the injection of adrenaline so many are hoping for.  The world of phosphate also saw one of the higher cost production locations (N.A.) cost of production drop once again for December with the Tampa NH3 price falling $120.  While this does not mean that the price will absolutely drop (we do not operate in a cost plus marketplace), it does mean that the hard price floor fell.
However, two words of caution.
1. Fall is not done.  Just because it appears poor today does not mean that a surge of demand couldn't happen.  As you will see later in the report, some grain/phosphate ratios are actually dropping into what was considered normal before all of this started a couple years ago.
2. Year end/beginning prepay dollars are coming. While many are looking to make cuts where possible, there is also money to be spent because no one wants to give it to big brother!  With ratios improving dramatically from where they have been, phosphate could get a surprise.
 
Should you buy your fall '22/spring '23 phosphate needs?
I'm still not thrilled with buying spring application needs but I am also very nervous about logistics which makes me think we need to have more discussions with our suppliers.
The price trend, which has been lower since late March/early April, is hard to argue against.  Demand has pulled away.  Inventories continue to grow.  It is a match made in heaven for those that have been dragging their feet on purchasing needs for the 2023 crop.
From a global POV, there seems to be less to fear.  It continues to look like there is adequate supply and vessels are moving well (which is reflected in freight rates continuing to fall).
However, for those in North America, I'm very worried about logistics and supplies.
From the logistical POV, river and rail continue to be worrisome.  While Washington D.C. voted to stop any strike, they may want to meet a couple rail workers before thinking that will make a difference.  If anything, that action is probably more likely to have them dig their heels in and start slow shipping/calling in sick/etc.  On the river situation, true healing is not likely to happen until spring.  Timely rains across the Midwest will give flow surges which will help keep traffic moving but in order to get back to normal, we need a tremendous amount of moisture in the north.  The problem with that is that most of the moisture comes as ice and snow and will not make its way to the waterways until spring melt.
We also need to be cognizant of price risk.  For the last few months, we have discussed how it looks like prices will continue to decline.  This makes us want to hold off on purchases.  However, our retailers/coops/etc. are in the same boat.  Do you think they want to put in physical product with the markets doing what they are doing?  Of course not.
I'm not a fan of locking in price today, but let me be crystal clear:  You need to be talking to your supplier about your plans.  If not, you might walk into their office, check in hand, and find out there is nothing there.  Have those conversations and give them a fighting chance to plan for your needs.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Tampa NH3 price fell $120 from November to December, lowering Florida production costs
Another month, another drop in production costs for North American phosphate producers.
The Tampa NH3 price fell $120 from November to December.  With NH3 being one of the two variable costs for phosphate production, it has a direct impact on the cost.  In November, we estimated the cost of production for a ton of DAP fob NOLA at $421.  That cost fell to just under $400 in December.
Going forward, we will need to figure out where the Q1 '23 cost of sulfur will be set to get a handle on the start of the year.
Now, let me be clear.  Just because the cost of production dropped DOES NOT mean that the price has to drop in kind.  This is not a cost plus model that we operate in.  What it does mean is that the price CAN fall further before the hard price floor is reached (i.e. cost of production).
Following what is perceived to be a poor fall run with little nearby interest, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts.
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Early fall N.A. demand indications appear less than hoped for
Now, this story differs from region to region.
Those in the Midwest, where some of the best yielding land in the world resides, are reporting that demand is solid.  That makes sense.  They grow huge crops which means having to replace huge nutrients.  With what some have paid for land, they need to maximize their yields which means phosphate cannot be lacking.
However, outside of that area, the story gets murky.  Some continue to point to extremely poor soil moisture conditions.  Others say that farm economics for 2023 are not superb and are causing farmers to pull back on application rates or hold off in hopes of better situations.
Lastly, it is still too early to call the fall a failure.  It is still very early December and there is time to catch up...if farmers make that call.  Some timely rains.  A bump in grain values.  Any of these events could turn demand around in a hurry and "save" the fall.
 
North America logistics continue to struggle
It seems like this is a situation that will continue at least thru winter and unfortunately affects 2 of the 3 methods of transportation...
For rail, it seemed as though the crisis was averted.  Originally, there was hope that railroads and railroad workers were coming close to agreement which would stave off the impending strike.  Then Washington D.C. got involved.  They voted to not allow a rail strike to occur...I think they should have spent a little more time thinking about who they were voting against.  While I have no concrete evidence that this will be the situation, I would not be surprised to see workers to get irritated by this action and decide to dig their heels in further.  If this happens and we see a longer term strike occur, I literally have no clue how to break down all the effects to the marketplace.  All I can tell you is it will cost a hell of a lot more to move product from point A to point B...and guess who will ultimately pay that price.
Then for river, while we have seen some timely rains across the Midwest, it is not near enough to heal the waterways.  For that to happen, we need significant moisture in the north and with it being winter, that will come as snow and ice.  That moisture will not become available to the rivers until spring melt.  Until that time, we need to keep crossing our fingers that timely rains continue.
Fortunately, it seems as though fall demand for phosphate has been somewhat poor which will mean more inventories already in place.  That takes some of the heat off the resupply chain.  Unfortunately, supplies still need to be shipped and if either/both of these fears come to fruition, what happens in the Gulf of Mexico or around the world will not matter.  It will cost so much more to move product into place that any price declines will not been seen inland.
Russian government imposing an export duty on phosphates
While discussions of this action have been going on for a while, the confirmation did not come until this weekend.
The Russian government is imposing a 23.5% duty on phosphate exports that are valued over $450 ton.  That means that if a Russian producer were to sell at a price of $600 fob Russian port, the 23.5% duty would apply to the $150 difference, not the entire value.
There has been a lot of speculation as to how this would affect Russian exports going forward and who would bear the cost.  My read is that exports will not be affected and Russian exporters will pay the cost. 
Unless global supplies are affected, this shouldn't change the global S&D (i.e. prices remain unchanged).  It isn't as though global buyers, in the current well supplied marketplace, are going to tell Russian producers/exporters "oh, you have a duty?  I'll pay that to keep access to your product.".  No.  Buyers will say "I will buy the world market price whether that is you or not.  If you haver a duty, that is your problem.".
With the limit set at $450, it is highly unlikely that any production will be near its break even costs.
Keep in mind that this is just my POV but I see little affect on the world stage.  Just creates an environment where Russian producers/exporters have to pay the government.
North American corn/phosphate ratios have improved significantly
While it is far from something I would call a huge bargain or cheap, it has improved a lot.
Today, the ratio sits right in the middle of the last several years.  It has fallen 50 bushels from its high set this calendar year...yet remains 40 bushels higher than the lowest set in 2019 and 2020.
This is not to say that the current phosphate values are "cheap".  In fact, they are still historically high...but so too are corn values.  That is where flat prices can influence our POV.
This is not a nod to buy or not buy.  I am merely pointing out that the situation has improved significantly from where it was.
image 57104
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana DAP price comparison
Number 5 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (2.6MMT exported in 2021)
  1. Canada (63%)
  2. Brazil (11%)
  3. Colombia (7%)
  4. Mexico (6%)
  5. Australia (5%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $40 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $125 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -15% or approximately $110 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -14% or approximately $106 lower

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U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $50 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -5% or approximately $36 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -14% or approximately $120 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -2% or approximately $14 lower

image 57095

U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $25 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -2% or approximately $20 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -9% or approximately $75 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - +1% or approximately $7 higher

image 57096

U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - -5% or approximately $43 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -5% or approximately $40 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -12% or approximately $100 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -2% or approximately $15 lower

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Morocco DAP price comparison

Number 2 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (7M exported in 2021)

  1. Brazil (28%)
  2. India (14%)
  3. Bangladesh (8%)
  4. Argentina (6%)
  5. Nigeria (4%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $25 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -18% or approximately $157 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -37% or approximately $432 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -20% or approximately $180 lower

image 57098

Black Sea DAP price comparison

Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (4MMT exported in 2021)

  1. India (42%)
  2. United States (21%)
  3. Australia (8%)
  4. Brazil (9%)
  5. Kenya (5%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $11 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -23% or approximately $193 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -24% or approximately $201 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -25% or approximately $213 lower

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India DAP price comparison

Number 2 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 import origins (4.8MMT imported in 2021)

  1. China (39%)
  2. Saudi Arabia (35%)
  3. Morocco (20%)
  4. Jordan (3%)
  5. Russia (2%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $14 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -12% or approximately $85 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -20% or approximately $187 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -19% or approximately $167 lower

image 57100

China DAP price comparison

Number 1 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (10MMT exported in 2021)

  1. Brazil (19%)
  2. India (19%)
  3. Pakistan (9%)
  4. Bangladesh (7%)
  5. Thailand (6%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - +1% or approximately $10 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -13% or approximately $110 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -28% or approximately $275 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -22% or approximately $205 lower

image 57101

Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison

Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (4.1MMT exported in 2021)

  1. India (42%)
  2. United States (21%)
  3. Australia (9%)
  4. Brazil (8%)
  5. Kenya (5%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $18 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -13% or approximately $103 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -31% or approximately $318 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -20% or approximately $180 lower

image 57102

Brazil DAP price comparison

Number 1 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 import origins (6.15MMT imported in 2021)

  1. China (32%)
  2. Morocco (31%)
  3. Russia (24%)
  4. Saudi Arabia (5%)
  5. United States (5%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $12 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -21% or approximately $157 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -43% or approximately $467 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -28% or approximately $242 lower

image 57103

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • 2023 overall demand looks solid (unchanged from November) – we still need more information regarding the 2022 harvest, a lot of the early indications are pointing to a solid mix of grain acres in 2023 that should mean big demand.
  • North American logistics stay bad / get (unchanged from November)– a rail strike continues to loom with both sides digging in...and D.C. stepping in.  River water levels continue extremely low will little hope in sight.  Losing one chain would cause NOLA/inland basis to blow out.  Losing both would be devastating.
  • Grain/phosphate ratios are improving – are they as low as we saw back in 2018 - 2020?  Absolutely not.  However, they are much improved from where they have been and could cause demand to step in sooner than expected.  This, coupled with year end/beginning prepay could turn the tide.
Bearish Factors
  • The current trend is our friend (unchanged from November) – another month, another drop in price ideas. Not only does it continue to happen, but it seems as though it is affecting demand decisions which creates a self fulfilling prophecy.  
  • Farmers likely to be looking to make input cuts to the 2023 crop (unchanged from November) – 2023 looks like it is going to be one of the more expensive crops to raise on record.  Everything is higher priced.  This could push farmers to make cuts to their phosphate applications.  While I wouldn't expect this in prime farmland, this is certainly an option in some of the lower producing fields out there.
  • Some fall applicators look to be waiting until winter/spring (slightly changed from November!!!) - while it is too early to call fall done, it does appear that a chunk of the farming community is dragging their feet on phosphate applications.  With global prices continuing to dwindle and still a lot of questions about next years crop, seems a patient approach is being utilized.
Where are the current phosphate/grain ratio values today?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
  • Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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image 57112
Josh Linville’s focal points
  • Chinese export levels - yes, how the world's largest exporter of DAP and MAP restricts or allows their flows have a major impact on global price ideas!!!  If China continues to allow, or increases the allowance, of phosphate exports, then we could see prices continue to dip.  If we see a reversal, also a distinct possibility, the opposite effect.
  • Russian export flows/programs - while I do not think the recently imposed export duties will affect their export flows, I also cannot guarantee it and believe we need to watch this closely over the next several months.  
  • Fall demand - we need to continue to watch the fall because it is too early to make a call on the success/failure of the fall.  So far, it appears that demand will fail to meet expectations and could/should cause price to deteriorate further.  However, if grain prices rise/year end prepay much better than expected, we could see values turn around quickly.
  • N.A. logistics - I could be dead right on the phosphate price call that values are dropping.  If we lose either/both of river and rail logistics, it likely will not matter inland.  It will cost so much more to move product from point A to point B that world drops will not affect you.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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