By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
I would be lying if I said the return of Chinese exports and continued higher than historic average ratios didn't concern me. I'm hearing more and more that farmers need to spend money but they may spend it on misc. fertilizer rather than specific fertilizers to delay locking in values.
Regardless, with March only 60 days away, many need to start preparing for spring season much sooner than later. That means demand needs to step forward sooner than later.
On the supply chain, it is no different than most other markets. When prices start to rise, everyone and their dad rush to lock up all the cheap available inventory left. The longer you wait, the less likely you are to get a deal. However, on the way down, everyone is holding out until the absolute last minute and high priced inventories stick around for a while. It is very similar to when my wife wanted a garden box built. I priced all the lumber and it was going to cost over $500. Wasn't going to happen! Then I started to see lumber futures start falling tremendously. It took a long time for the price to drop at Home Depot and Lowe's.
Logistics cannot be forgotten. The rail situation seems to have calmed down and is no longer a worry for most folks. While trucks are tight, it isn't much different than normal (not enough). The river situation, while much better than it has been, is still far from healed. Freight rates are still extremely high due to the difficulty in moving product.
Unfortunately, with spring phosphate application starting in 8 weeks, logistics could see further strain. That means inland prices could continue to hold.
I'm not sure what the walk away point is for this piece other than to point out that prices ARE falling around the world but you might not get to see them at home. It is an uncomfortable truth but the truth.
Price comparisons
U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison
U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison
U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison
Morocco DAP price comparison
Number 2 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (7M exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Black Sea DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4MMT exported in 2021)
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India DAP price comparison
Number 2 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (4.8MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
China DAP price comparison
Number 1 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (10MMT exported in 2021)
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Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4.1MMT exported in 2021)
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Brazil DAP price comparison
Number 1 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (6.15MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons
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A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.
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