By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
The last thing that drives my thoughts is timing. March is 4 weeks away. Winter feels like it is going to take forever to get done. However, 4 weeks is not that long. Preparation time is almost over. We are just about to the just in time part of spring and that usually supports pricing.
That is where we are locked in if we do both sides of the equation. I realize that selling grain forward does have some risks and everyone needs to consider if those risks are worth it. I'm not here to say it is or is not.
So what happens if it goes sour on us?
You might be thinking "nothing out there indicates corn is dropping that much, quit trying to scare us". I get it, but that number is actually higher than some models are predicting. If the U.S. hits 92M acres of corn and we hit trendline yields, assuming demand and everything remains constant, we could be looking at a cash price sub $5...
Now, we could also have a horrible growing season, demand jump and prices rally.
Merely trying to show the dangers.
Price comparisons
U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison
U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison
U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison
Morocco DAP price comparison
Number 2 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (7M exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Black Sea DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
India DAP price comparison
Number 2 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (4.8MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
China DAP price comparison
Number 1 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (10MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4.1MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Brazil DAP price comparison
Number 1 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (6.15MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons
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