By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
There is a good chunk of potash that is produced in Belarus whose product finds its way around the world. If you haven't seen in the news, there has been a political flare up in country that is resulting in a war of words as well as increased pressure in the form of sanctions.
If the situation continues to deteriorate, we could see sanctions placed against potash exports which would reduce the available supply globally. If global inventories were plentiful, it wouldn't be that big a deal. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. As tight as it is, if we do see sanctions put into place, values are likely to climb higher.
I still believe that their product would find homes. Just that the routes would have to be...more unique, we will say! Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world, yet their fertilizer finds homes. The Belarus situation would cause a short term blip but eventually settle down.
During normal years, potash values would deteriorate coming out of the spring application season in North America. Unless you have been living under a rock for the last year, this is anything but normal!!!
The spring season ended with inventories depleted and buyers begging for fill out of fear of repeating 2008 (grain values spiked similar to today and fertilizer prices jumped substantially higher than today). With that combo, values were initially steady out of spring and have climbed since then. In fact, NOLA potash values are approximately $70 higher than where they were toward the end of April.
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