By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
That said, it continues to appear that price remain under pressure. We are nervous regarding overall demand as farmers may look at the price, determine it to be too high and decide to cut back application rates for the 2nd year in a row. Fall applicators could make the decision to delay their application until winter/spring in hopes of prices falling further.
Adding to those fears is the continued belief that more supply is coming. Nutrien and Mosaic have made steps to increase production, new mines in Russia will help global supplies and we continue to believe that Belarus will find its way back to the world.
In the end, there are reasons to watch potash for a trend turnaround but today, a lot more paths appear to push price ideas lower in the short term.
All this to say, if you are going to apply potash this fall, I implore you to have that conversation with your supplier sooner than later. I like the idea of holding in hopes that prices drop further. However, I am much more worried about a situation where we hold off a little longer and then find out the product is not available. For a lot of operations, the price of potash moving $30 - $50 does not equate to a lot of bushels per acre. The risk is significant.
U.S. Midwest Average (average of several points across the Midwest)
I'm changing this going forward simply because I was struggling with what I should put here. Typically, I fill it with general statements that a lot of times you all do not need.
When I look at markets, I try to find the one/couple points that are most important to me that tell the story. That is what I will start doing on this section:
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