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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
After the bombshell filing of the anti-dumping/counter vailing duty case against Trinidad/Tobago/Russia, it seems that we once again need to increase our price expectations for this summer.  Less than 24 hours after the news was released, UAN paper values jumped $30 and the scary part was thinking that I was surprised that was all it was...
This case will change the structure of the market and will once again make UAN the premium N source in N.A.  As long as this case in proceeding, 80% of U.S. imports will either be shut out or run the risk of paying the duty determined at the end of the hearings in several months.  As UAN prices move higher in relationship to urea, modern production plants will start to produce more UAN to make up the shortfall.
The only 2 things that I could see stopping the upward trend is either the ITC throwing out the case (determining there is no grounds - very low likelihood) or grain values falling thru the floor (again, low likelihood).
Unless something else shocking happens to upend the current trend, UAN sure appears to have bullish legs....
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Spring inventories ended extremely low
this was a big spring season that wiped out most inventories.  With grain prices that held/pushed higher, many farmers decided to increase their application rate to try and eek out a little more yield.  As a result, demand was tremendous.  What this means is that there is more than enough empty tankis space to be filled which is music to producers ears!  With very little pressure for producers to sell today, they can remain proud of their product and continue asking higher prices as a result.
CF has filed an anti-dumping/counter vailing duty case against Russian/Trinidad & Tobago UAN imports
I cannot stress how big of a deal this is.  From a U.S. point of view, Russia/Trinidad/Tobago accounts for 80% of all UAN imports on average.  These cases take months to resolve and during that time, it will be very difficult to import from either region.  These cases have a "snap[ back clause" attached to them.  This means that in 6 months, if the ruling is a 20% duty (for example, of course), any ton imported from either region since the case was filed  will be subject to paying that duty rate.  So if imports grind to a halt, U.S./N.A. values will rise (as they have been since the filing) in an attempt to convert more urea production to UAN.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - -5% or approximately $15 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -1% or approximately $4 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +125% or approximately $160 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +145% or approximately $170 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Plant repairs/turnarounds in N.A. last longer than expected this summer – this could be a big deal.  We already know that UAN inventories are tight coming out of spring.  If we get into these plant repairs and find that production downtime has been underestimated, it will just make a tight situation worse.
  • ITC agreeing to hear the full anti-dumping/counter vailing duty case – now that the case has been filed, it has to pass the "sniff" test.  If the ITC decides there is enough information to proceed, the case will now last several months until final verdict.  This will disrupt import flows and cause prices to spike further.
  • A successful 1st round of summer fill – when CF comes out with their initial fill values to the market, if they are well received, values will continue to be supported.  It will give CF a solid sales book which they can rest on and not feel the pressure of having to sell.  Then they can take the price higher and see the reaction there.
Bearish Factors
  • Significant push back on the 1st round of fill – as important as a bull factor as it is, it can also be a major bear factor.  If the fill program value is released and the market shuns it, this could cause producers to step back and wonder what happened.  More inventory will be left on their "books" and could pressure them to drop pricing to bring demand forward.
  • Loss of N demand due to 2022 acreage mix changing – following the USDA report, many more are believing that 2022 N demand will remain higher than normal due to expected crop mixes.  However, if these mixes start to trend toward soybeans (for example), demand for UAN would drop which would pressure values.
  • Grain/Urea prices falling – current grain/UAN ratios are already on the high side of recent years.  If we see grain prices start to fall, those ratios get even higher priced and could cause demand to step back.  On the other side (urea), if values continue to fall, UAN will be a huge premium in comparison, causing demand to at least consider switching.  Losing demand to either scenario keeps supply steady, demand down and likely prices down.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN;
  • Spend 30 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN.
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
Pay more attention to the horizontal dotted line as it compares the current UAN price expectations against new crop values.
  • Very quickly, we start to see if we are high/level/low vs previous years.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the new crop grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 14635
image 14636
image 14637
 
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • If your retailer/supplier doesn't have a UAN number yet, it isn't their fault.  We still have not seen the release of widespread fill programs across the U.S./N.A.  By the time I put out the August edition, we should be able to speak to it.
  • If you are outside North America and use UAN, you should see a lot more product available in the coming months!  With the U.S. effectively pushing away imports, these tons need to find a home.
  • ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.  Right now, all signs point to higher prices.  Then again, last August, all signs pointed to horrible things and here we are.  Stay on your toes.  
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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