StoneX logo

Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
The next 30 days for UAN look to be...boring.
Fundamentally, UAN prices are still very much supportive.
From a global perspective, European natural gas prices are still sky high which means their production continues to struggle.  It simply isn't feasible for them to make money producing nitrogen today unless they are getting subsidies from the government or getting much higher prices than normal for their byproduct output.  This affects a lot of production and is continuing to keep the global UAN market tightly supplied.
From a North America perspective, supplies also remain very tight.  Producers are extremely well sold thru March which means they can now sit easy.  They have no need to sell anything today.  Especially not at lower values.  The one that haunts me the most right now is that we are using 91M acres of corn in our demand models and our ending spring inventories are VERY low.  If we have a situation where corn acres jump to 93 - 94M (University of Illinois published an article pointing to 96M), I'm forecasting extremely tight supplies where UAN values jump higher to push the demand to urea.
With that said, I'm still flat to bullish overall but I think the next month will be boring.  The market is mostly wore out.  We have been on a tear for a year and a half without much of a break and most are not used to it (myself included).
What has happened in the last 30 days?
European natural gas prices still high/production levels still low
This situation has actually gotten worse.  Before, we had natural gas prices in the $30/MMBTU range thru March before prices fell.  In recent weeks, the near months have seen values jumping over $40/MMBTU as well as summer months showing significantly higher prices as well.  
Long story short, the near months got worse and the pain looks to continue into Q2 '22.
This can and most likely will change.  However, today we have to take what we are given and we are being given a bad production rate scenario...
North American producers remain patient
This shouldn't come as a shock.  North American producers are very well sold today.  They also remember what happened last Feb/Mar with the artic blast and its effect on production.
Frankly, if I was a producer, I wouldn't be in a rush to sell anything today either.  I would lay low, wait and see what happens with the market.  If things start getting a little more bearish, the fundamentals of UAN should still support pricing.  If the situation gets more bullish, then waiting just made me more money.
We have been saying this for a while.  UAN supplies are very tight.  That gives the producer more negotiation power and they really like higher prices.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +3% or approximately $16 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +30% or approximately $130 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +95% or approximately $275 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +341% or approximately $437 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • European production remains down – high natural gas input values are leading to the loss of a lot of UAN production in Europe.  The demand is still there that is reliant on that production.  That makes them a much bigger importer than normal.  There is more competition for tonnage in the world.
  • North American production starts having issues again– whether this is plant breakage, unforeseen weather events causing shut downs, etc., we can ill afford any further production downtime.  Any hiccup will be felt quickly and violently...
  • We underestimate 2022 corn acreage – this is a big one.  We continue to use 91M acres in our demand models.  If something like the U of Illinois prediction of 96M is correct, then that is 5M acres of additional N demand.  Guess what that would do to prices...
Bearish Factors
  • Corn acres can be lost quickly – higher than expected yields this fall.  A move by D.C. to do away with ethanol mandates.  Chinese demand disappearing.  All of these seem like low likelihood events but each one could cause demand of UAN to dry up very quickly.
  • European natural gas prices could plummet – if we saw values drop back to the single digits (even lower teen's would help), while we would still be fundamentally firm, the market would be emotionally soft.  The top end of the market would be taken out and participants would be looking to protect downside price risk (roughly means more sellers than buyers).  As a result, UAN prices would feel the heat.
  • UAN continues to be the premium price N product – for the last few years, UAN has enjoyed being a discount to urea which meant more demand than normal.  However, it is once again the premium product and farmers are always looking for the cheapest route forward.  If enough demand shifts to urea or NH3, it could outweigh what has been lost for supply and see prices under pressure.
Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 25380
image 25381
image 25382
 
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • MAKE SURE YOU LOOK AT YOUR UAN NEEDS IN A PREPLANT AND SIDEDRESS PERSPECTIVE.  I know this is a repeat of last month but it still holds true.  I see very few avenues forward where preplant values drop.  Sidedress could be different.  I'm still a believer that tight fundamentals will help prop prices high thru sidedress but there are more avenues where prices could drop following planting.
  • If you are going to drag your feet on later purchases, TALK TO YOU SUPPLIER.  I cannot stress enough how tight the S&D for UAN is going to be this year.  I'm not going to say that there will not be enough to go around if we ramp up corn acreage, but the price will almost certainly jump as a result.  Talk with your supplier so they can be as prepared as possible.  It is hard to pull the trigger when buying your position.  Imagine being the retailer and needing to buy thousands/tens of thousands of tons to prepare for spring.
 
 
 
  • Fertilizers

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.