By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
This entire situation could be over in a matter of days...or it could linger for weeks/months. This this could end in a whimper where Russian comes to their senses and negotiates a peaceful resolution. We could also see Putin continue to ramp up aggressive talks and push the world closer to a global war.
There is no way to know and why the urea market changes so fast and so violently. All we can do is our best to stay ahead of the situation while trying to think of how things will changes under certain scenarios.
Long and short, newly called upon tons are not showing up on your doorstep until mid-May at the earliest. This does not mean we will have a shortage. This is more to give an appreciation of how long it takes to get product. When I was in Australia, I was shocked because not only do you have sail time, you also have to hit several ports with a ship. It all takes time.
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