Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
Vice President- Fertilizer
India’s latest urea tender has done more than miss its target. It has signaled a broader shift in global fertilizer dynamics. Sellers, once compelled to meet aggressive buyer pricing, are now dictating terms in a market defined by tighter supply and mounting geopolitical complexity. The balance of power that favored large buyers like India for years is clearly tilting in the other direction.
Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, outlines how this new equilibrium emerged as producers began rejecting low-priced tenders and asserting control over trade flows. His insights reveal how shifts in pricing behavior can reshape both procurement strategy and long-term market stability.
Linville explains that India’s latest bid secured just 430,000 tons out of a two-million-ton goal, as sellers refused to accept low offers. “It sure feels as though this is a pricing issue”, he notes, pointing to traders and manufacturers who held back participation because they believed market values should be higher than India’s offer levels. The episode reveals that market fundamentals have tightened enough to embolden suppliers and challenge India’s once-dominant negotiating position.
For years, India’s large tenders drove aggressive competition among global suppliers. That dynamic has now reversed. Linville observes that when India enters the market today, producers raise prices instead of cutting them. “Every time we step in for a major tender, the price goes up”, he says, emphasizing how the old playbook no longer works. This shift underscores a broader pattern across commodities where scarcity, logistics, and policy shocks have given sellers renewed leverage.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
Access NowSee our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures and Options on Futures trading services are provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094). Over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps trading services are available through StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652). SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. SFI and SXM are wholly owned subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz does not release fertilizer supply all at once, because Persian Gulf ports load vessels at a fixed pace. That loading limit shapes how nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur markets move from selloff to recovery.
The eight projects selected under the FIELDS fertilizer program range from mobile ammonia units to dairy manure conversion. The awards expand some existing U.S. capacity, but new supply is years away and the nitrogen import gap remains.
Fertilizer inventories across North America are running smaller than normal as farmers, retailers, and distributors all delay purchases. Lessons from past boom-and-bust cycles and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are pushing delivery and price risk onto the final buyer.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
