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Financial Markets Morning Commentary
By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence
Economic
- 10-year futures are -7/32. Yields are +2.40 bps at 4.274%. S&P futures are +19.00. There is a buildup of anticipation once again as US-Iran peace talks are expected to take place in Pakistan tomorrow. The details of the meeting are not clear and Iran has not confirmed that it will attend, but Pakistani officials have expressed some confidence. The two-week ceasefire would theoretically end overnight tonight, though in comments to Bloomberg, President Trump said the end was a day later, on Wednesday evening Washington time. He added that it would be “highly unlikely” he would extend the truce. Markets are pricing a reduction in US-Iran tensions, with oil considerably off its highs near $119.50/bbl. Stocks are also higher after JP Morgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500, citing AI and tech-driven earnings, and after Amazon said it will invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic.
- Preliminary data on Strait of Hormuz transits shows 13 crossings yesterday following two on Sunday and 24 on Saturday.
- On the calendar this week, Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh will face a Senate confirmation hearing today. Thursday will feature weekly jobless claims while Friday will see the final Michigan sentiment numbers. Earnings this week include Tesla, IBM and Boeing on Wednesday, Intel and American Express on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble on Friday.
- (Reuters) US retail sales were +1.7% m/m in March vs. +1.4% expected and +0.7% previously (revised from +0.6%). Retail sales ex-autos were +1.9% vs. +1.4% expected and +0.7% previously (revised from +0.5%).
- (Reuters) Disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran war has added more than $100 to the price of long-haul flights from Europe, a cost likely to trigger higher ticket prices, campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said. The rise in jet fuel prices has increased the average fuel cost by 88 euros ($104) for each passenger on long-haul flights leaving Europe and 29 euros on flights within Europe, T&E said.
- (Reuters) Apple on Monday named longtime hardware boss John Ternus as its next CEO after Tim Cook said he will stay on as executive chairman when Ternus takes over on September 1.
- (Reuters) Alaska Air Group withdrew its full-year profit forecast on Monday after a sharp rise in jet fuel costs tied to the Iran war pressured margins and darkened the outlook for the rest of the year. Alaska said it expects its second-quarter fuel bills to bloat by about $600 million, equivalent to a profit per share headwind of $3.60. Shares of the carrier were down 4% after the bell.
- (Reuters) UnitedHealth on Tuesday raised its annual profit forecast and beat Wall Street expectations for the first quarter as the healthcare conglomerate kept costs in check and received improved government payments for its health insurance business. The company now expects 2026 adjusted profit per share to be greater than $18.25, an increase of 50 cents from its prior forecast of greater than $17.75 per share. Analysts were expecting a profit of $17.86 per share for 2026, according to data compiled by LSEG.
- (Reuters) Rio Tinto reported a 2.4% jump in its first-quarter iron ore sales on Tuesday, driven by robust production from its Pilbara operations. The world's biggest iron ore producer sold 72.4 million metric tons (Mt) of iron ore from its Pilbara operations in the three months ended March 31, compared with shipments of 70.7 Mt a year earlier. That missed the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 74.6 Mt.
- (Reuters) Halliburton beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit on Tuesday, as steady demand in Latin America and Europe helped offset a slowdown in activity in the Middle East due to the Iran war. Halliburton posted an adjusted profit of 55 cents per share for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts' expectations of 50 cents, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
- (Bloomberg) 3M slips 2% after the maker of Post-it notes, protective equipment and auto maintenance products reported adjusted organic growth that missed estimates.
Geopolitical
- (Reuters) The United States has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant uncertainty remained on Tuesday as the end of a ceasefire loomed. The two-week truce in the war that the U.S. and Israel unleashed on Iran on February 28 was set to expire in the next day or two, although officials have given mixed messages on the precise timing.
- (Bloomberg) The US is waiting on whether Iran will take part in a second round of talks before a ceasefire expires on Wednesday, with the sides deadlocked on how to end the war. US President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, is ready to leave for negotiations in Pakistan, but threatened to resume the country’s military operation if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Tehran has yet to confirm its attendance in Islamabad.
- (CNN) President Donald Trump pushed the expiration of the truce with Iran to Wednesday evening ET, saying it’s “highly unlikely” he will extend it further if no deal is reached. This gives negotiators an extra 24 hours of talks before Trump must decide whether to follow through on his threat to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants.
- (Wire Services) White House Press Secretary Leavitt said US has never been so close to making a good deal with Iran, adds Trump still has options if there is no deal with Iran.
- (Reuters) Russian forces have taken 1,700 square km (656 square miles) of territory in Ukraine this year and are advancing on its so-called fortress belt in Donbas, Moscow's top general said while inspecting his forces.
- (Reuters) Some 246 firefighters were still tackling a fire at Russia's Black Sea port of Tuapse on Tuesday, more than 24 hours since a Ukrainian drone attack, local authorities said. A Ukrainian drone attack on Tuapse sparked a fire and killed at least one person on Monday.
- (Reuters) Ukrainian drones struck an oil dispatch facility in Russia's Samara region overnight, an official from Ukraine's SBU security service said on Tuesday. The attack caused a fire and, according to preliminary data, damaged five tanks containing crude oil, each with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters, the official said.
Energy
- WTI is -$0.36/bbl at $87.06/bbl, while Brent is -$0.31/bbl at $95.17/bbl. Natural gas is -$0.011/MMBtu at $2.678/MMBtu.
- (Reuters) The conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is creating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. "The crisis is already huge, if you combine the effects of the petrol crisis and the gas crisis with Russia," he added.
- (Reuters) China will lower domestic retail gasoline and diesel price caps from Tuesday night, marking its first cut this year as global oil prices retreated from their peaks of the Iran war. The price drop will save a car owner about $3.23 to fill a 50-litre tank of 92-octane gasoline. Beijing has raised maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel three times since March.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump invoked the Defense Production Act on Monday to sign a series of energy-related presidential memorandums, the White House announced, as his administration aims to tackle rising fuel prices as a result of U.S. and Israel's war on Iran. Trump signed memorandums on coal supply chains, domestic petroleum production, natural gas transmission and liquefied natural gas capacity.
- (Reuters) Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as a halt to crude supplies via the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according to five sources and Reuters calculations. Russia may have cut production by about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April, from the average level seen in the first months of the year.
- (Reuters) Hungarian election winner Peter Magyar called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday to reopen the damaged Druzhba pipeline as soon as it is functional, and for Russia to resume oil shipments through it.
- (Reuters) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview broadcast on Monday that the damaged Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil to Eastern European countries would be restored to operation by the end of April.
- (Reuters) Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1, three industry sources said on Tuesday. The sources also said that the adjusted oil exporting schedule has been sent to Kazakhstan and Germany.
Metals
- Gold is -$28.70/oz, trading at $4,800.10/oz, while silver is -$1.153/oz at $78.885/oz.
- The dollar index is +0.129 points at 98.226.
- (Reuters) Copper prices lacked direction on Tuesday as investors waited for news on whether peace talks between the United States and Iran would go ahead, as well as a Federal Reserve chair confirmation hearing that could provide clues on interest rates.
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