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first look 12/18

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

CPI, ECB rate decision and BOE rate decision out this morning.....Nike, Fedex and Darden restaurants are among a handful of companies reporting earnings today.

 

China’s Securities Times reported that the PBoC’s room for further interest-rate cuts is narrowing, signaling a shift away from broad monetary easing toward a more balanced policy mix. The article suggests that with liquidity already ample and structural tools playing a larger role, aggressive reserve-requirement (RRR) cuts are no longer seen as necessary. Instead, policymakers are expected to rely more on targeted credit support, fiscal coordination, and structural measures to stabilize growth while avoiding renewed pressure on the yuan or financial stability.

 

Fed officials struck a cautiously optimistic but divided tone on the outlook. Governor Waller said the labor market is “very soft” with weak payrolls, though he sees 2026 potentially shaping up as a better year, arguing inflation expectations remain anchored and that inflation—while still above target—should ease in coming months without re-accelerating. Waller said policy is likely 50–100 basis points above neutral and, while there is no urgency to cut rates, the Fed can continue gradually lowering them depending on consensus. In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said overall GDP growth remains solid and is likely to carry into next year, but acknowledged uncertainty around the labor market trajectory, underscoring mixed signals within the Fed.

 

Tensions around the EU-Mercosur trade deal are escalating as key leaders stake out hard positions. French President Macron said France would strongly oppose any EU attempt to force the agreement through, while Italian Prime Minister Meloni argued the conditions for a deal could be met early next year but warned it would be premature to sign now. In contrast, Brazilian President Lula struck an ultimatum, saying Brazil will not sign the agreement later if it is not finalized immediately, insisting Brazil has already made all possible concessions and warning that failure to approve the deal now would lead to a tougher stance toward the EU.

 

The U.S. Trade Representative posted a document outlining how certain tariff-related elements of the Switzerland trade framework will be implemented, providing greater clarity on duties, procedures, and compliance mechanisms tied to the agreement. The move signals progress in operationalizing the deal and offers guidance to affected industries on how tariff provisions will be applied in practice, even as broader aspects of the U.S.–Switzerland trade relationship continue to be finalized.

 

 

image-20251218055529-1

Overnight options activity 

Corn 

B 2000 h 445/465 cs 6 to 6 1/8 

B 100 h 470 c 3 1/8 

S 100 n 460 p 25 3/4

 

Beans 

B 150 h 1060 p 20 ½ vs 1069 1/4

 

Bean oil

S 200 f 49 c .500 

B 300 f 49/5050 cs vs s 4750 p .125 to .175 db

 

Wheat 

S 100 h 510 c 16

 

Kc wheat

B 150 h 580 c 3 1/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn 

Feb 440 call sale, feb 435 put buy, march 435/450 call spread buy and feb 435/420 put spread buys were new......jan 437 put sale, jan 430 put sale, jan 450 call buy and jan 440 put sales were closing 

 

Beans 

July 1060/1020 put spread buy, july 980 put buy, w1 1060p/1080c strangle sale were new....w3 1070/1060 put spread sale was rolling a long.

 

Soymeal 

Dec 295/290 put spread sale and dec 340/345 call spread sales were new

 

Wheat 

March 525 put buy and march 500 put sales were closing

 

Kc wheat

March 495/460 put spread sale and march 530/590 call spread sales were new

 

Cvol 

Ags 18.01% up .22%

Corn 15.06% up .16%

Beans 14.47% down .18%

Soymeal 19.55% up .38%

Bean oil 24.52% down .16%

Wheat 20.05% down .40%

Feeder cattle 20.52% up .20%

Live cattle 18.97% up .59%

Lean hogs 21.15% up .56%

Class 3 milk 15.97% up .40%

 

Corn 

image-20251218055529-2

Beans 

image-20251218055529-3

Soymeal 

image-20251218055529-4

Bean oil

image-20251218055529-5

Wheat 

image-20251218055529-6

Kc wheat 

image-20251218055529-7

Miax wheat

image-20251218055529-8

Oats 

image-20251218055529-9

Rough rice

image-20251218055529-10

Crush 

image-20251218055529-11

Oil share

image-20251218055529-12

Feeder cattle

image-20251218055529-13

Live cattle

image-20251218055529-14

Lean hogs

image-20251218055529-15

sources:
news newsqawk

options data globex

vol graphs and market data bloomberg

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