The White House OMB now listing the 45Z proposed rules as “complete” rather than “under review” is being read by trade insiders as a clear signal that action is imminent, raising expectations for near-term guidance or announcements. Against that backdrop, it is plausible that President Donald Trump references biofuels while speaking in Iowa today, using the venue to reinforce support for ethanol, lower fuel prices, and farmer demand without rolling out technical details. E15 is especially likely to be mentioned given its political resonance in Iowa and its alignment with gasoline price messaging, and Senator Chuck Grassley’s comment that E15 will be picked up in February suggests concrete follow-through is approaching rather than mere rhetoric.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva agreed to visit Washington in the near future following a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which the two leaders discussed regional issues, including Venezuela, and emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in Latin America despite broader political and economic differences. Separately, Brazilian agribusiness firm Kepler Weber confirmed plans to install a corn storage and processing facility in Venezuela, after Brazil’s securities regulator requested clarification related to a report published last week in Globo Rural. Together, the developments underscore Brazil’s effort to balance diplomatic engagement with the United States while continuing commercial and agricultural involvement in Venezuela.
House Republicans have signaled that if Senate Democrats allow the government to shut down, any legislation to reopen the government would include the House GOP’s SAVE Act, effectively using a shutdown as leverage to force consideration of the measure. The stance raises the risk that a funding lapse, if it occurs, could be prolonged, as reopening the government would be tied to broader policy demands rather than a clean stopgap bill, increasing political pressure and uncertainty around the shutdown negotiations.
China’s Commerce Ministry announced plans to integrate an overseas service platform that will provide one-stop support—including legal, tax, financial, logistics, and trade services—for Chinese firms seeking to expand internationally. Separately, a Commerce Ministry official said China will roll out new supportive policies in a timely manner and back foreign firms in boosting consumption and participating in government procurement. The official added that while challenges remain, China still sees many favorable conditions for foreign trade development, emphasizing that opportunities and risks currently coexist.
China’s central bank said it plans to further develop the offshore yuan (CNY) market in 2026 as part of a broader effort to strengthen the currency’s international role and improve cross-border financial stability. The People’s Bank of China reiterated its commitment to expanding and innovating its policy toolkit, while also signaling that it will broaden the scope of macro-prudential policy oversight. The messaging underscores Beijing’s focus on managing financial risks, guiding capital flows, and maintaining control over monetary and financial conditions amid external pressure and global volatility.
The European Union and India are reportedly exploring ways for India to participate in European defense initiatives, signaling a deepening of strategic and security ties beyond trade. Separately, India’s Trade Secretary said that India and the EU have concluded negotiations on a trade agreement, with an official announcement expected on Tuesday. Taken together, the developments suggest a coordinated push to strengthen the broader EU–India relationship, combining economic integration with closer geopolitical and defense cooperation.
U.S. President Trump said he is increasing tariffs on South Korean goods after South Korea’s legislature failed to enact what he described as a historic trade agreement. In a public post, Trump said that while the decision rests with South Korea’s legislature, the lack of approval has prompted the United States to raise tariffs on autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and all other reciprocal tariff categories from 15% to 25%. The move signals a sharp escalation in trade pressure on South Korea and reinforces the administration’s willingness to use tariffs to force legislative follow-through on negotiated trade deals.
A Chinese Commerce Ministry official said that China and the United States have maintained communication at multiple levels following the leaders’ summit in South Korea. The official added that both sides are working to manage differences and promote more stable trade relations, signaling an effort to keep economic ties functional and prevent further escalation despite ongoing strategic and policy disagreements.
Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, said there is still no decision on whether to hold a vote on the U.S.–EU trade agreement. As a result, any move to advance the agreement has been delayed until February 4, extending uncertainty around the timing and momentum of the deal.
China’s industrial profits showed a notable rebound in December, with year-over-year growth accelerating to 5.3% after a sharp 13.1% decline previously, signaling improved conditions for manufacturers late in the year. On a year-to-date basis, profits were up 0.6% year over year, edging higher from 0.1%, suggesting that while the industrial sector remains under pressure overall, policy support and stabilization in demand helped arrest the earlier deterioration and deliver modest cumulative growth by year-end.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | |
| Dow | 49,324 | (241.00) | -0.49 | |
| Crude | 60.52 | (0.11) | -0.18 | |
| US Dollar | 96.5550 | (0.302) | -0.31 | |
| Gold | 5,087.48 | 78.780 | 1.57 | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 63.1910 | 1.2680 | - | |
| VIX | 16.10 | (0.05) | - | |
| | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI |
| Corn | 295,312 | (2,400) | 58,552 | 28,965 |
| SRW | 147,701 | 695 | 22,399 | 6,746 |
| HRW | 89,377 | (7,313) | - | 8,649 |
| Soybeans | 202,257 | 4,726 | 49,361 | 14,483 |
| Meal | 210,172 | (5,143) | 24,103 | 3,903 |
| Oil | 163,522 | 2,907 | 20,234 | (3,961) |
| Feeders | 16,493 | (100) | 3,983 | 1,521 |
| Live Cattle | 43,638 | (948) | 15,107 | 1,576 |
| Hogs | 54,203 | 4,688 | 18,811 | 5,790 |
| | | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 250 n 470 c 9 7/8 to 10
B 175 k 460/480 cs 2 3/4
S 250 k 460 c 5 ½ to 5 3/8
Beans
S 200 x 1190 c 21
S 100 x 1240/1340 cs 6 1/2
S 250 k 1070 c 27
B 1000 w5 1050/1040 ps 1 3/4
S 150 k 1150 c 5 3/4
Bean oil
B 175 h 60 c .145
B 200 n 57 c vs s k 53 c .730 cr
Open interest changes
Corn
July 475/550 call spread buy and march 420 put sales were new
Beans
March 1180 call sale and w5 1060/1050 put spread buys were new....march 1020 put sales were closing
Soymeal
May 310 call sale, march 290 put buy, april 305 call buy and march 305 call sales were closing....march 290/280 put spread buy was rolling a long....march 300 call sale was closing
Wheat
March 500 put buy was new
Kc wheat
March 500 put buy, march 510 put buy and may 520 put buy vs may 580 call sales were new
Lean hogs
April 90 put buy was new
Cvol
Cme did not update data
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hog
sources
options data globex
news bloomberg
charts bloomberg
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