August options started trading on Monday along with June for corn and wheat. Missed that...
President Trump said he will announce his pick for Federal Reserve chair this morning, describing the choice as a very good and well-known figure in the financial world whose selection would not be a surprise. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh for the role. Warsh met with President Trump at the White House on Thursday, adding to speculation that he is the leading candidate. Separately, journalist Rachael Bade reported that Trump met with two finalists for the position and is leaning toward Warsh to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reinforcing expectations that Warsh is the frontrunner.
Gold and silver suffered a sharp, technically driven selloff as a
rebound in the U.S. dollar and a repricing of interest-rate expectations followed reports that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Markets interpreted the news as signaling a more hawkish, credibility-focused Fed, undercutting risk appetite and triggering heavy profit-taking after an extended rally in precious metals. The move was exacerbated by crowded speculative positioning and momentum-driven selling, particularly in silver, leading to outsized intraday volatility across the broader metals complex, including copper. The pullback reflects a rapid macro and positioning reset rather than a clear shift in longer-term fundamentals.
US President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats said a deal had been reached to avert a government shutdown, under which the Senate would move quickly to pass five of the six spending bills that have already cleared the House, according to the Wall Street Journal. Despite that, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is not confident a shutdown will ultimately be avoided, underscoring ongoing uncertainty. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham said the Senate would not vote Thursday night on the spending deal, after reports earlier in the day that the House-backed funding package failed to advance on a key procedural vote in the Senate.
The UK and China are weighing a cross-border asset management scheme aimed at deepening financial market ties, according to the South China Morning Post. Separately, China and the UK agreed to resume high-level security talks and plan to launch a new strategic and economic dialogue in 2026, according to Xinhua, signaling a broader effort to stabilize and expand bilateral engagement. In contrast, President Trump warned that it is “very dangerous” for the UK to do business with China and said it is even more dangerous for Canada to deepen commercial ties with Beijing, highlighting growing U.S. concern over closer China ties among key allies.
U.S. factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 2.7% in November, pointing to a rebound in manufacturing demand after the prior month’s decline. The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $56.8 billion, far larger than expected, reflecting weaker net trade dynamics late in the year. Labor cost pressures eased materially, with unit labor costs falling 1.9% in Q3 while productivity surged 4.9%, reinforcing a disinflationary signal from the labor market. Weekly jobless claims were broadly stable, with initial claims at 209K and continuing claims falling to 1.83 million, suggesting the labor market remains resilient with no clear signs of stress.
A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce said that when asked about a potential new round of U.S.–China trade talks, China is willing to work with the United States to jointly uphold and implement the important consensus reached by the two countries’ leaders, according to the Global Times.
President Donald Trump said he had a very productive phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, describing the discussion as going extremely well for both countries and focusing on border security, stopping drug trafficking, and trade, with plans to speak again soon. Sheinbaum also characterized the call as productive and said both sides agreed to keep working together, but noted there has been no concrete progress yet on a trade deal. She said discussions are moving forward, with the U.S. pushing for higher regional content requirements under the USMCA beyond the auto sector. She added that critical minerals were not discussed on the call, even though the topic is being raised by other countries, and said Mexico plans to have a separate call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney soon.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | | |
| Dow | 48,865 | (305.00) | -0.62 | | |
| Crude | 64.97 | (0.45) | -0.69 | | |
| US Dollar | 96.3850 | 0.248 | 0.26 | | |
| Gold | 5,128.64 | (246.600) | -4.59 | | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 69.8230 | 3.0030 | - | | |
| VIX | 18.70 | 1.82 | - | | |
| | | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI | |
| Corn | 369,212 | (5,812) | 47,422 | 18,039 | |
| SRW | 176,213 | 333 | 24,329 | 9,123 | |
| HRW | 77,157 | (3,813) | - | 3,904 | |
| Soybeans | 309,108 | 7,608 | 47,094 | 8,151 | |
| Meal | 136,033 | 1,267 | 20,805 | 8,089 | |
| Oil | 183,513 | 2,316 | 28,523 | 3,548 | |
| Feeders | 22,493 | 432 | 6,963 | 2,016 | |
| Live Cattle | 47,764 | 820 | 21,682 | 5,953 | |
| Hogs | 47,989 | 3,476 | 11,515 | 3,264 | |
| | | | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
S 200 h 420 p 2 1/4
Beans
B 500 h 1060/1040 ps vs s 1080 c 1 5/8 to 2 db
S 200 j 1070 p 17
B 400 x 1600 c 2 1/4
S 100 k 1080 c 25 3/8
B 500 h 1000 p 3 ½ to 4 3/8
B 500 h 1060 p vs s h 1080 c 2 5/8 to 3 7/8 db
Soymeal
S 800 h 305 c 2.05 to 1.95
Bean oil
S 1000 h 52/54 cs .720 to .715
B 650 n 70 c .550
Wheat
B 1000 h 500 p 1 to 1 1/8
Open interest changes
Corn
March 420 put sales were closing....march 430 put buy, july 460/550 call spread buy, sept 390 puts buys and march 435 call sales were closing
Beans
March 1060 put sale and may 1050 put buys were new....march 1060/1050 put spread buy was rolling a long
Soymeal
March 310 call buy and march 300 call buys were new
Bean oil
March 53 put buy was new...march 60 call buy and march 49 put buys were closing....w2 56/57 call spread buy was rolling a long
Wheat
March 510 put buy and may 530 put sales were new
Kc wheat
March 525 put buy and may 540 put buys were new
Live cattle
April 242 call sales were new
Cvol
Ags 17.25% up .13%
Corn 15.46% up .33%
Beans 13.60% up .06%
Soymeal 20.42% down .03%
Bean oil 26.97% up .52%
Wheat 24.71% up .62%
Feeder cattle 17.23% up .36%
Live cattle 15.41% up .29%
Lean hogs 20.25% down .45%
Class 3 milk 19.87% down 1.47%
corn
beans
soymeal
bean oil
wheat
kc wheat
miax wheat
oats
rough rice
crush
feeder cattle
live cattle
lean hogs
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