By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
Foreign scenario
This week, attention should turn to Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision on Wednesday (26). The Fed should use the statement and press conference after the decision to consolidate market expectations around a 0.25 p.p. interest rate hike at the March FOMC meeting. Further interest rate hikes, which financial agents widely anticipate, should depend on inflation rates, future inflation estimates, and labor remuneration growth. The median of analysts' expectations is for three interest rate hikes over 2022, but the prospect of four hikes has gained a following.
On the other hand, Fed officials always stress that their decisions are based on available data. There is a small probability of reducing cost pressures over 2022, which could delay the monetary authority's momentum.
Market analysts will also be watching for signals about reducing the institution's asset balance, i.e., more information about how the Federal Reserve and its members visualize the operationalization, time horizon, and pace of application of this instrument in the future. For example, there is a possibility that the FOMC at next week's meeting will decide on an early end to the institution's stimulus asset purchase program, instituted after the Covid-19 pandemic so as not to add to the asset balance sheet further. Most agents expect the balance sheet reduction to be announced at the July FOMC meeting, starting in August, and to take place passively; those securities that mature would not be replaced. It is also possible that the Fed will release some technical documents of plans, principles, and parameters to normalize its monetary policy.
Next week the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), the indicator most used by the Fed to track price acceleration, will be released. The median of the estimates shows a 0.4% increase in December, closing 2021 with a 4.8% increase for the year, which would be the highest value for the index since 1983. The Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter of 2021 will also be released, another indicator closely watched by the US Central Bank to indicate how much inflation has already taken root in the economy.
Domestic Scenario
In the domestic scenario, fiscal concerns remain on the scene, with a new strike for salary adjustments scheduled for January 25 and 26. At the time of this writing (January 21, 6:00 PM), the vetoes and sanctions of Brazil’s President, Jair Bolsonaro, to the 2022 Annual Budget Bill had not yet been published. Approximately 50 categories protested on Tuesday (18) and delivered a letter to the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, but they were not welcomed for a dialogue. The public servers threaten to strike in February if the Executive does not meet them.
This week should hold the release of important economic indicators. First, the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) for January from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), and the National Broad Consumer Price Index - 15 (IPCA-15), from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), calculated between the last 15 days of December and the first 15 days of January. These indicators should show whether there is a cooling-off in the ongoing price acceleration rates. In addition, IBGE will also release data on the labor market in November, highlighting the unemployment rate, the average labor income and the participation rate of the working-age population.
Finally, more information about the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) mentioned by Jair Bolsonaro to the press to reduce fuel and electricity prices, items that have raised inflation in 2021 and have become a point of attrition in the approval of the president is also expected. According to press outlets, the proposal being designed foresees at least two mechanisms. One of them authorizes the federal government to temporarily reduce or even zero the federal taxes on gasoline, ethanol, diesel, and electricity in times of crisis. The other allows creating a fund to relieve the pressure generated by a rise in prices.
Today, to reduce a tax, the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) requires the Executive to point out a source of compensation for the loss of revenue, either by increasing other taxes or cutting expenses. The PEC under discussion would alter the Constitution to allow the temporary reduction of taxes without the need for compensation by the government's decision. The fund would be composed of dividends paid by Petrobras to the Union and could be used to finance the reduction of electricity tariffs and fuel prices. This week, in an interview with a TV vehicle, the president had stated that "there was talk of a proposal that we could send to Congress that deals with fuel. Yes, there is a proposal; I don't want to go into detail. It will be presented at the beginning of the year. We are trying to reduce the tax burden, often forced to find an alternative source, you can't just reduce it, and we are doing what we can." However, as the proposal would directly benefit Bolsonaro, it could not be presented by the Executive this year due to the Electoral Law. Therefore, it would need to be presented by a congressman.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
The euro-dollar has bounced off multi-year support, but the more important shift is happening in interest rate expectations. As bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike fade, the U.S. dollar is quietly losing the tailwind that carried its recent strength.
The U.S. dollar is the single biggest swing factor for gold and silver, and its long-term trend is now being tested. A confirmed turn in the dollar could reset the outlook for precious metals, either capping them further or opening room toward new records.
Dollar to reflect Copom interest rate decision and US economic data
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
