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Global Cocoa Output To Surpass 5 Million Tonnes Mark In 2020-2021, For the First Time

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

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Global Cocoa Output To Surpass 5 Million Tonnes Mark In 2020-2021, For the First Time

Commodities Network (Bogota)- The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised upward its global cocoa production forecast to 5.024 million tonnes, up by 181,000 tonnes from the previous estimate of 4.843 million tonnes, propelled by a record production expected in Côte d’Ivoire and Ecuador, ICCO said.

ICCO said record production in the African and South American nation along with a pandemic affected demand partly explain the revision upward.  “On the one hand, no significant adverse situations have been witnessed in the top producing regions. On the other hand, though demand for cocoa is expected to rebound as the negative effects of the pandemic on the demand for cocoa begin to wane, it is envisaged that demand will still be below pre-pandemic levels,” ICCO noted.

In terms of share of total world production, Africa is expected to remain by far the largest cocoa producing region, accounting for 77% of world cocoa output. The shares of the Americas and Asia and Oceania are likely to be 17% and 6% respectively.

At the regional level, production is expected to increase by 9% in Africa (up by 305,000 tonnes to 3.871 million tonnes), by 2.2% in the Asia and Oceania region (up by 6,000 tonnes to 278,000 tonnes) and to decrease by 1.7% in the Americas (down by 15,000 tonnes to 875,000 tonnes).

The overall outlook for Côte d’Ivoire’s production remains optimistic with a forecast at a record production of 2.225 million tonnes. As of 9 May 2021, cumulative arrivals at ports were 1.879 million tonnes, up by 6.8% compared to 1.760 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. With the mid-crop farmgate price lowered by 9% from 1,000 CFA per kilogram to 750 CFA per kilogram (US$1.35), it is expected that sales of the country’s beans will improve compared to the low sales of the main crop which resulted in stockpiles of beans at farms and ports.

In Ecuador, although expectations point to a record production of 340,000 tonnes for Ecuador, poor rainfall levels have been witnessed in some growing areas. This is likely to slightly change the forecast production data – but record levels are envisaged to be attained.

Meanwhile, ICCO said the estimate for world production for the 2019/20 cocoa season has been slightly adjusted upwards by 2,000 tonnes to 4.728 million tonnes, compared with the data published in the previous issue. This is mainly due to minor revisions of the estimates for cocoa output from Africa (up by almost 4,000 tonnes), the Americas (down by 2, 000 tonnes) and a reduction of less than 1,000 tonnes for Asia.

The estimate for world grindings has been increased by 2,000 tonnes to 4.671 million tonnes. The increase is distributed across Europe (up 25,000 tonnes), Americas (up 3,000 tonnes), Asia and Oceania (down by 19,000 tonnes) and Africa (down by 6,000 tonnes). F

By countries, Côte d’Ivoire is expected to increase production by 75,000 tonnes. The current weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire are envisaged to improve the size and quality of the midcrop, ICCO said.

By Diana Delgado

  • Cocoa

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