Daily Coffee Report 6/17/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Global Coffee Market Caught Between Rising Supply and Persistent Disruptions
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The global coffee market is entering a transitional phase in mid-May, as improving supply prospects—led by Brazil and Vietnam—begin to weigh on prices, even as ongoing logistical disruptions and uneven physical availability continue to provide underlying support.
Arabica futures in New York have softened in recent weeks, trading near 283–285 cents per pound as of May 13, marking a decline of roughly 4–5% over the past month and nearly 24% year on year. This downward trend reflects growing confidence in a larger 2026/27 global crop, though short-term volatility persists. Earlier in the week, benchmark contracts slipped around 0.8%, with robusta futures in London also posting declines, highlighting the cautious tone across both segments of the market.
At the center of the market’s forward-looking outlook is Brazil, where expectations of a potentially record harvest continue to dominate sentiment. Estimates for the 2026/27 crop vary widely, ranging from approximately 66 million bags under official projections to as much as 75 million bags according to private analysts. This anticipated expansion reflects the biennial “on-year” cycle for arabica production, favorable weather conditions during key development stages, and increased investment by growers following the price rally seen in 2024 and early 2025.
However, despite the increasingly bearish supply outlook, prices have not collapsed. One key reason is the persistent friction in global logistics, which continues to disrupt the timely movement of coffee from producing countries to consuming markets. Ongoing instability in the Red Sea region has forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days to transit times and materially increasing freight costs. In some cases, broader geopolitical tensions have pushed shipping costs sharply higher, with certain trade routes experiencing freight increases of 40–60% alongside rising insurance premiums.
These disruptions have effectively placed a floor under coffee prices, offsetting some of the bearish pressure from anticipated supply growth. Even as production recovers, delayed shipments and elevated logistics costs continue to influence physical availability, particularly in destination markets with tightly scheduled roasting and inventory cycles.
Developments in Vietnam—the world’s largest robusta producer—reinforce the broader global trend of rising volumes paired with declining values. Government data show that the country exported approximately 810,000 tons of coffee between January and April 2026, a 15.8% increase compared to the same period last year. Yet export revenue fell by around 7% over the same interval, reflecting a sharp correction in prices after the highs recorded in 2025.
The decline in robusta prices has been particularly pronounced. Values on the London market have fallen from around $4,100 per ton at the start of the year to between $3,300 and $3,500 per ton by April, underscoring the extent of the adjustment. This shift is largely attributed to improved production conditions in Southeast Asia and the expectation of a more balanced—or even surplus—global market in the coming crop year.
As a result, a clear divergence is emerging between arabica and robusta dynamics. Robusta prices are under heavier pressure due to expanding supply, while arabica continues to receive support from tighter availability of higher-quality washed coffees and cautious selling behavior among Brazilian farmers. This divergence is also influencing commercial strategies, with roasters adjusting blends and sourcing patterns to manage costs amid fluctuating market conditions.
Meanwhile, other producing origins are showing signs of gradual recovery, contributing further to the evolving supply landscape. In Central America, for example, Guatemala’s coffee production is forecast to reach 3.26 million bags in the 2026/27 marketing year, a 3.3% increase year on year, supported by expanding harvested area and the maturation of renovated plantations. While incremental in isolation, such gains add to the broader narrative of rebuilding global supply after several years of weather-related disruptions and tight inventories. [dailycoffeenews.com]
Taken together, current developments suggest that the coffee market is no longer defined solely by the supply shortages that drove prices to multi-year highs in 2024 and early 2025. Instead, the sector is transitioning into a more complex environment where improving production prospects coexist with structural logistical constraints and uneven physical flows.
In this context, the market is effectively balancing three competing forces. On one side is the increasingly bearish outlook for supply, driven by Brazil’s expected bumper crop and strong export performance from Vietnam. On the other is a set of persistent bullish factors, including elevated freight costs, longer transit times, and continued uncertainty in global shipping networks. Bridging these is the near-term reality of still-constrained availability in some markets, as well as the slower-than-expected release of stocks by producers.
As the 2026 harvests progress and new crop volumes begin to reach the market in greater scale, the interplay between these forces will determine whether prices continue their gradual correction or find renewed support. For now, the global coffee market remains in a state of transition—caught between the promise of abundance and the constraints of a still-fragile supply chain.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 6/16/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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