Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Global Coffee Markets Slide as Supply Narrative Regains Control
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Coffee futures opened the week on the defensive, with both Arabica and Robusta prices extending recent losses as traders once again pivoted toward an increasingly dominant supply narrative. After several weeks punctuated by geopolitical risk and logistical uncertainty, sentiment in the market has shifted decisively back toward expectations of abundant global supply, particularly from Brazil and Vietnam.
In New York, ICE Arabica futures drifted toward the mid‑280s cents per pound, hovering near multi‑week lows, while London Robusta contracts fell back toward the low‑$3,200s per metric ton. The renewed softness followed confirmation that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, easing fears of prolonged shipping disruptions that had briefly supported prices earlier this month. With the immediate logistical threat subsiding, market participants have refocused on production forecasts and export flows, which continue to point toward easing tightness as 2026 progresses.
Brazil remains central to this outlook. Analysts continue to underline expectations for a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop, with several private forecasts clustered around 75 million to 76 million bags. While weather conditions in key Arabica‑growing regions such as Minas Gerais remain closely monitored, dry conditions to date have not yet been sufficient to materially undermine production prospects. Harvest preparations are underway, and the market is increasingly bracing for the arrival of new‑crop supplies beginning in earnest from mid‑May onward.
At the same time, Brazilian producers appear under little pressure to accelerate sales. Strong balance sheets, limited unsold volumes from the 2025/26 crop, and the relative firmness of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar have all reduced incentives to sell aggressively at current price levels. This has kept nearby export flows somewhat constrained, but has not been enough to counterbalance expectations of a large incoming harvest or to shift broader bearish sentiment.
Vietnam continues to reinforce that sentiment on the Robusta side of the market. Official data covering the first quarter of the year show Vietnamese coffee exports running well ahead of last year, underscoring robust availability from the world’s largest Robusta producer. That export momentum has weighed heavily on Robusta prices, even as ICE‑certified stocks in London remain near recent lows. For many traders, Vietnam’s export pace is a key indication that supply pressure may persist well into the second half of the year, particularly as production is projected to rise again in the 2025/26 cycle.
Brazilian export data, meanwhile, has offered only limited counterweight. Shipments of green coffee declined year‑on‑year in March, reflecting low remaining stocks from the current crop and a measured selling pace by producers. However, rising certified stocks in New York have tempered any bullish interpretation of those figures. Certified inventories are still well below levels seen a year ago, but the steady rebuilding of stocks since early 2026 has reinforced the perception that supply pressure is gradually easing rather than intensifying.
Currencies continue to play an important secondary role. The Brazilian real’s relative strength against the U.S. dollar has helped slow producer selling and provided intermittent support to Arabica prices, but currency factors have so far been overridden by the sheer scale of projected supply growth. Market participants note that without a sharper move in foreign exchange markets or a meaningful weather shock in Brazil, currency dynamics alone are unlikely to reverse the broader trend.
From a macro perspective, attention is also turning toward input costs and longer‑term risks. The International Coffee Organization has warned that elevated fertilizer prices, tied to geopolitical tensions and energy markets, could pose risks to future crops if disruptions persist into the next planting cycle. For now, however, those concerns remain largely forward‑looking, with most analysts agreeing that the current 2025/26 crop is unlikely to see significant impact.
Volatility linked to geopolitical headlines has not disappeared, but barring renewed disruptions or unexpected weather shocks, the coffee market appears set to trade primarily on supply expectations in the near term. For roasters and importers, the recent pullback in prices offers some near‑term relief after months of elevated costs, though few believe the path ahead will be smooth. With global stocks still relatively tight by historical standards and climate risks ever present, the balance between easing supply pressure and structural uncertainty continues to define the coffee market as it moves deeper into 2026.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 13
August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.