I-CIP jolted and recovered, but still lacks clear direction
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 335.76 US cents/lb in April 2025, a 3.5% decrease from March 2025. The I-CIP posted a median value of 338.47 US cents/lb and fluctuated between 308.93 and 357.21 US cents/lb. The I-CIP followed a downtrend until 8 April, after which a gradual reversal began. The April 2025 I-CIP is above the April 2024 I-CIP by 54.8%, with the 12-month rolling average at 278.20 US cents/lb.
The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ prices both decreased by 2.7% and 2.8% compared to March 2025, averaging 394.14 and 392.84 US cents/lb, respectively in April 2025. The Brazilian Naturals depreciated, decreasing by 3.6% to 378.27 US cents/lb in April 2025. The Robustas retracted 4.4% to 246.39 US cents/lb. The London Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) market was the main driver of the decline, decreasing by 4.8% and reaching 235.69 US cents/lb, whereas the New York ICE market shrank by 2.8%, averaging 370.37 US cents/lb in April 2025.
A combination of specific events, macro-economic occurrences and geopolitical factors has ushered in a degree of negative uncertainty within the coffee market, jolting the I-CIP recovering within a long bull-run. Indeed, in April 2025 the I-CIP reached a four-month low of 308.93 US cents/lb on April 8th –that had not been reached since 21 January .This was due to the new tariffs announced by the US President on 2 April, which prompted a 32.59 US cents/lb retraction. However, on 9 April, a follow-up announcement suspending the abovementioned tariffs for 90 days reversed the direction of the market, allowing a prompt recovery of the I-CIP. The latest movements suggest that the coffee price is searching for direction, with both bullish and bearish factors affecting the market, although the former appears to have the upper hand, as seen below:
Bullish factors:
- Cooxupé, Brazil's largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below[1]normal rainfall in Brazil last month would negatively affect coffee yields this year.
- Optimism about declining inflation – with world inflation rate declining from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.3% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Furthermore, a projected GDP recovery, leading to a sustained and projected increase in demand (Figure A below), has been supporting the I-CIP.
- Coffee remains a low elasticity commodity, with demand not fluctuating significantly, thanks to a large range of coffee products at several price points available, which helps support high prices.
- Market optimism on a tariff exemption, as prices could continue growing without fearing that demand may be impacted.
- Inverted futures market, where delivery of coffee today comes at a premium.
- Low and at times negative (from 1 to 3 and from 11 to 23 April) Colombian Milds – Other Milds differentials, suggesting an undersupply of Other Milds in the market.
Bearish factors:
- Weakening demand due to the potential increase in retail coffee prices, resulting from higher customs costs as reciprocal tariffs remains.
- The addition of Vietnam as a Deliverable Origin on the Coffee “C”® Futures Contract as of 1 April, with a lot consisting of 37,500 pounds of washed arabica coffee, at a differential of -600 points. The greater availability of commercial coffee in destination ports could help alleviate any supply fears.
The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential expanded from 0.95 to 1.30 US cents/lb between March 2025 and April 2025. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential expanded by 27.1% to 15.87 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential grew by only 0.3% from March 2025 to April 2025, averaging 147.75 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds– Brazilian Naturals and Other Milds–Robustas differentials moved by 26.2% and 0.0% to 14.57 and 146.44 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differential retracted by 2.2%, averaging 131.87 US cents/lb in April 2025.
The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP declined by 1.1 percentage points compared to March 2025, averaging 11.2% in April 2025. The volatility of the Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals fel by -2.8, -2.7 and -2.7 percentage points, month-on-month,to 11.2%, 11.3% and 11.6%, respectively in April 2025. The Robustas’ volatility grew to 11.5% for the month of April, a 2.5 percentage points expansion. Lastly, New York’s volatility decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 12.4% while the London futures market’s volatility followed the opposite trend, growing by 1.9 percentage points to 11.7%.
The London certified stocks of Robusta coffee decreased by 3.1% from March 2025 to April 2025, closing the month at 0.71 million bags. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee followed an opposite and stronger trend, expanding to 0.85 million 60-kg bags, a 6.4% increase versus March 2025.
Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
Global green bean exports in March 2025 totalled 11.64 million bags, as compared with 11.75 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 0.9%. This is the third month the exports of total green beans fell in coffee year 2024/25. As a result, the year-to-date volume is down 3.2% at 60.63 million bags as compared with 62.62 million bags in October 2023-March 2024.
Exports of Colombian Milds increased by 25.3% in March 2025 to 1.33 million bags from 1.06 million bags in March 2024. This was the eighth consecutive month of positive growth for this group of coffee, with Colombia as the main driver of the latest double-digit growth. The origin’s exports of the Colombian Milds jumped by 25.2% to 1.16 million bags from 0.93 million bags in March 2024.
Shipments of the Other Milds were up 5.9% in March 2025 to 2.27 million bags from 2.15 million bags in the same period in 2024. Positive contributions came from numerous origins –Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Honduras being the main ones –, with a collective net gain of 0.22 million bags. Counterbalancing these origins,to an extent, were Mexico, Papua New Guinea and Peru, with their total shipment down by 0.16 million bags. The upturn of 53.2% in Costa Rica was due to an anomalous export of only 0.08 million bags in March 2024, and shipments down 27.3%. The abnormal nature of March 2024 exports was not limited to the Other Milds but affected overall exports as a whole.
Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased by 2.4% in March 2025 to 3.49 million bags from 3.57 million bags in March 2024. Brazil was the main driver of the downturn, with their exports decreasing by 9.4% to 2.78 million bags from 3.07 million bags in March 2024. The negative growth was due to the base effect and strong cyclical nature of Brazil’s Arabica coffee. Coffee year 2023/24 was an “on-year” for Brazil’s Brazilian Natural exports, up 21.4% for the year and up 16.1% in March 2024 versus March 2023. Ethiopia was the main mitigating factor, softening the full negative impact of Brazil’s fall with 65.4% jump in exports, shipping 0.43 million bags versus 0.26 million bags in March 2024. The double-digits increase could be the result of a combined impact of front-loading new supply from the coffee year 2024/25 harvest and the continued release of stocks in higher volume, as Ethiopia takes advantage of the elevated international coffee price level.
Green bean exports of the Robustas were down 8.4% to 4.55 million bags in March 2025 from 4.97 million bags in March 2024. The main driver of the downturn was Brazil, whose exports decreased by 83.6% to 0.14 million bags from 0.85 million bags in March 2024. The sharp downturn is a reflection of the origin’s exports returning to relative normality after prolonged, unusually elevated levels of exports from July 2023 to December 2024.
The Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports for the first six months of coffee year 2024/25 to March 2025 increased to 63.0% from 59.7% over the same period a year ago.
Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
Exports of all forms of coffee from the world increased by 0.6% to 13.0 million bags in March 2025, as compared with 12.92 million bags in March 2024. This was the second consecutive month of positive growth, following three straight months of negative growth. The year-to-date exports fell to 67.73 million bags from 69.2 million bags over the same period a year ago. Three out of four regions saw their exports expand, with only South America experiencing a downturn, which also pushed down the same region’s share of the total exports to 35.7% in March 2025.
This is South America’s lowest monthly share of the world exports since June 2023, when it stood at 34.6%.
Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania were up 6.1% in March 2025 to 4.84 million bags from 4.56 million bags in March 2024. The expansion was driven by Indonesia, whose exports were up 125.4% to 0.86 million bags from 0.38 million bags in March 2024. The size of the growth rate is a reflection of a base effect and of the impact of “off-year” versus “on-year” production cycle. Furthermore, the increase may have been due to extra volume of stocks being released in response to the record-high prices, especially those of Robustas, explaining the absolute volume in March 2025, the highest recorded level for the month of March. Vietnam was a negative contributor to the region’s exports, shipping 3.09 million bags in March 2025 as compared with 3.22 million bags in March 2024, down 4.0%.
Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 36.3% in March 2025 to 1.58 million bags from 1.16 million bags in March 2024. This is the sixteenth consecutive month of positive growth for the region. Ethiopia and Uganda were the two main drivers behind the region’s growth in March 2025, with their exports up 65.8% and 72.9%, respectively, to 0.63 million bags and 0.57 million bags. For both regions, a good harvest – and hence supply - linked with high international coffee prices and “fronting loading”, appears to explain this growth. Côte d'Ivoire was a major negative contributor, whose exports were down 80.6% to 0.04 million bags in March 2025 from 0.18 million bags in March 2024. Opposite to Ethiopia and Uganda, poor harvest appears to explain the downturn in this origin.
In March 2025, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 15.9% to 4.64 million bags from 5.51 million bags in March 2024. This is the fourth straight month of negative growth for the region, following 14 consecutive months of positive growth. The downturn was due to Brazil, whose exports fell by 15.9% to 4.64 million bags from 5.51 million bags in March 2024. The downturn and its size were due to a base effect. For coffee year 2023/24, Brazil had exported 49.03 million bags, the highest ever recorded and 12.52 million bags bigger than that shipped in coffee year 2023/24, or up 34.3%. A large part of this increase was in response to supply issues in Vietnam, due to poor harvest, whose exports were down 11.7% with a net loss of 3.31 million bags in coffee year 2023/24. This need is no longer in play as Vietnam is flushed with new supply from the 2024/25 harvest, resulting in a decrease in Brazil’s exports.
In March 2025, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America increased by 15.3% to 1.94 million bags, as compared with 1.69 million bags in March 2024. The latest upturn is a reflection of the weak coffee year 2023/24, when exports were down 4.4%. The region has been on a downward trend since coffee year 2021/22, which is part of a longer-term pattern for the Mexico & Central America. Starting in coffee year 2010/11, exports of Mexico & Central America have shown a cyclical pattern of 3-4 years of increases, followed by 3-4 years of decline. Discounting the COVID-19 disrupted coffee year 2019/20, coffee year 2023/24 would have the fourth consecutive year of negative growth. Coffee year 2024/25, should the pattern hold, is the start of another 3-4 years long “up” cycle. Broadly, Honduras and Mexico were the main drivers of the region’s exports, with exports up by 12.7% and 33.6% to 0.81 million bags and 0.29 million bags in March 2025 from 0.72 million bags and 0.22 million bags, respectively, in 2024.
Exports of Coffee by Forms
Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 15.6% in March 2025 to 1.28 million bags from 1.11 million bags in March 2024.
Soluble coffee’s share in the total exports of all forms of coffee in coffee year 2024/25 (October 2024 to March 2025) increased to 9.9% compared with 9.0% for the same period in coffee year 2023/24. Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee in March 2025, shipping 0.33 million bags.
Exports of roasted beans were up 27.3% in March 2025, reaching 82,684 bags, compared to 64,964 bags in March 2024.
Alexis Rubinstein
