By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CocoaNetwork (New York) -
REVISIONS TO 2021/22 ESTIMATES
Compared with the data published in the last issue of the Bulletin, the estimates of both world production and grindings for the 2021/22 season remain unchanged. As such cocoa production and grindings are estimated at 4.826 million tonnes and 4.994 million tonnes. This reflects a decrease of 8% and an increase of almost 1% respectively from that of the preceding season. The net effect depicts that the 2021/22 season is estimated to have ended with a 216,000 tonnes supply deficit.
REVISIONS TO 2022/23 FORECASTS
Grappling mainly with decreases in supplies, the 2022/23 season ended with a production deficit. The decline has been attributed mainly to the supply shortfall from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. As these two countries produce about two-thirds of global cocoa beans supply, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market.
The decrease in the supplies from the two countries during the season under review had a negative effect on the cocoa market and eventually had prices escalating. For the past couple of years, supply has tended to be the main determining factor for prices for the cocoa market.
During the season, observations from cocoa grindings depicted that while cocoa processing in the traditional cocoa consuming countries decreased, their imports of semi-finished products especially by North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries improved. Regarding origin countries, Côte d’Ivoire in particular, witnessed a significant increase in cocoa processing as large capacity processors established their presence in the country.
Compared to data published in the previous Bulletin, world cocoa production has been revised to 4.953 million tonnes (up by 15,000 tonnes) as revisions have been made for some countries. A positive change of 40,000 tonnes has made to the data for Ecuador and an upward revision of 10,000 tonnes has been made for Brazil in conjunction with an aggregate increase of 5,000 tonnes for other countries. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have been adjusted downwards by 20,000 tonnes each.
The estimate of world grindings for 2022/23 season, has been revised downwards by 2,000 tonnes. Changes have been made for Ghana (down by 20,000 tonnes, Germany (down by 15,000 tonnes), Malaysia and Switzerland (down by 5,000 tonnes each). Upward adjustment of 20,000 tonnes has been made for Côte d’Ivoire in addition to increases for Brazil (up by 6,000 tonnes), Cameroon, France and Spain (up by 5,000 tonnes each) plus minor adjustments totalling 2,000 tonnes.
The net effect of the above revisions is a global production deficit of 99,000 tonnes compared with the Secretariat’s earlier projection of 116,000 tonnes in the previous Bulletin. The total statistical stocks of cocoa beans for the considered period are therefore estimated to have declined to 1.744 million tonnes, equivalent to 34.9% of the estimated 2022/23 grindings.
PRODUCTION
The global production deficit for the 2022/23 season painted a concerning picture for the cocoa market. It is worth noting that, the 2023/24 season is currently projected to result in a supply deficit as climate change and expectation of an El Nino occurrence are amongst the factors anticipated to affect production. As such, market participants continue to weigh in on the consecutive supply deficits situation. At the regional level, compared to the previous season, America’s production rose by 8% from 973,000 tonnes to 1.052 million tonnes, followed by Africa, up by slightly over 1% from 3.589 million tonnes to 3.634 million tonnes, while that of Asia and Oceania was up by 1% from 265,000 tonnes to 268,000 tonnes. In terms of total world production, Africa accounted for 73.4% of world output, while the shares of the Americas and Asia and Oceania were 21.2% and 5.4% respectively.
AFRICA
CÔTE D’IVOIRE
Unconducive weather and diseases during the 2022/23 season, have been linked to the supply reduction in West Africa. Production in Côte d’Ivoire is estimated at 2.180 million tonnes. Compared to the 2.121 million tonnes recorded in 2021/22 this reflects an increase though it is still below the levels needed to ease the global supply shortfall. The 2023/24 season has commenced and the government increased the guaranteed price to be paid to farmers to 1000 CFA per kilogram which is equivalent to US$1,626 per tonne.
GHANA
Production in Ghana has trended below the 700,000 tonnes for the last two seasons and it is estimated at 680,000 tonnes for the 2022/23 season. The downside to the country’s production continues to be attributed to weather, diseases and illegal mining. For the 2023/24 season, the producer price in Ghana increased to 12,800 Ghana cedis per tonne, or US$1,837.11 per tonne.
Cameroon is estimated to be down by 5,000 to 290,000 tonnes due to unfavourable weather conditions that occurred at certain periods during the season. With not much difference from its past trend, production in Nigeria is estimated at 280,000 tonnes.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
Cocoa production in the Americas is very often promoted as a reforestation programme and has been growing exponentially. In Ecuador, cocoa producers are involved in large scale farming with some plantations reported to produce 2,000 kilograms per hectare as compared to between 300 kilogram and 600 kilogram per hectare in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. For the 2022/23 season, production is estimated to be up by 21% to 440,000 tonnes. The current price rallies in international prices are likely to further entice producers in Latin America to engage more in cocoa production for the ongoing 2023/24 season.
BRAZIL
As reported in previous Bulletins, Para State has played a major role in the production revival in Brazil and it is now estimated that the growth rate in the state is more than that of Bahia State. For the 2022/23 season production is estimated at 220,000 tonnes.
With no new information as at the time of writing, production data for Peru, Dominican Republic and Colombia for the 2022/23 season are estimated at 170,000 tonnes, 80,000 tonnes and 70,000 tonnes respectively.
ASIA & OCEANIA
Indonesia and Malaysia as net importers of cocoa, produce less than their requirement. For the 2022/23 season production in Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea are pegged at 180,000 tonnes, 500 tonnes and 42,000 tonnes respectively and remain the same as the published data in the previous Bulletin.
GRINDINGS
As cocoa grindings serve as an indication for cocoa demand, the continuous decline in the quarterly year-on-year grindings data published by the major regional cocoa associations during the 2022/23 season portrayed a slowdown in cocoa demand. Moving on to the 2023/24 season, would the current high cocoa prices curb cocoa use? The Secretariat will monitor the situation and report in subsequent reports or Bulletins.
At the regional level, compared to the previous year, the Secretariat estimates that grindings decreased in Europe by 1% to 1.753 million tonnes. While that for Asia and Oceania fell by 2% to 1.129 million tonnes, grindings in the Americas remained flat at 935,000 tonnes. Global grindings growth was mainly from Africa which increased by 4% to 1.184 million tonnes. In terms of total world grindings, Europe accounted for 35% of world cocoa use, Africa 24%, Asia and Oceania 22%, and the Americas 19%.
Grindings activity for the 2022/23 season is estimated to have remained low in the traditional regions. Data published by the European Cocoa Association (ECA) for Q3.2023 indicated a 0.9% decline year-on-year to 366,298 tonnes. On the basis of a crop year, cumulative grindings in Europe during 2022/23 declineded year-on-year by 2% from 1,473,084 tonnes to 1,444,533 tonnes. Based on the latest available statistics, grindings for the Netherlands, Germany and France for the season are estimated at 600,000 tonnes, 435,000 tonnes and 140,000 tonnes respectively.
North American quarterly grindings statistics published by the National Confectionery Association (NCA) for the Q3.2023 period, fell year-on-year by 17.9% to 97,881 tonnes. Cumulative data for the 2022/23 season indicated a decline of 11% from 466,451 tonnes to 417,170 tonnes. It has been observed that North America has been importing more semi-finished products and this may have led to the reduction in bean processing. The Secretariat’s forecasts for the United States, Canada and Mexico are 350,000 tonnes, 100,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes respectively.
Côte d’Ivoire has demonstrated a resilient growth in cocoa processing. For the 2022/23 season, grindings in the country is estimated to be up by 8% (60,000 tonnes) to 770,000 tonnes. Based on the weakness in production, grindings for Ghana are estimated at 280,000 tonnes, down by 5%. In Southeast Asia, data from the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) declined and showed that cocoa grindings dropped by 8.5% to 211,468 tonnes in Q3.2023. With regard to the 2022/23 crop year, cumulative data published by CAA showed a 3% reduction from 904,597 tonnes to 878,279 tonnes. For the 2022/23 season, grindings in Indonesia are estimated at 450,000 tonnes. In Malaysia, cocoa processing declined by 3% from 375,321 tonnes in 2021/22 to 364,412 tonnes in 2022/23.
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