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In Ecuador, Coffee Growers Set to Begin Picking Beans Ahead of El Nino

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

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In Ecuador, Coffee Growers Set to Begin Picking Beans Ahead of El Nino

Coffee Network (Bogota) – The El Niño weather event causes massive rainfall in Ecuador, but coffee growers are set to begin picking bean in late May until August, which could prevent them from the damaging effects of El Nino in coffee plantations, Pablo Pinargote, the general manager of the coffee exporterts association Anecafe, said.

“What we are hoping for is that the harvest that begins in May starts to come in, allowing producers to harvest their coffee crops before this event occurs,” Pinagorte told Coffee Network.

Like Peru, El Nino brings torrential rains, which could cause damage to roads leading to ports and flooding in coastal cities.

El Nino manifests differently in Colombia as it brings severe droughts and forests wildfires.

Ecuador had a damaging El Nino in 1994 which damaged coffee plantations out of which the nation has not been able to recover since, Pinagorte noted.

The global coffee market is entering a transition phase in its climate cycle, with the latest forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center confirming that the 2025–26 La Niña event has dissipated and that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions now prevail.

More importantly for market participants, probabilities are steadily converging toward the emergence of El Niño from mid-2026 onward, with roughly a 60pc chance of development between May and July and a strong likelihood that the event could persist through the end of the year.

In Brazil, the world’s largest producer, the coming months represent a bridge between the harvest and the next production cycle. The 2025/26 crop is underway or about to accelerate, and weather conditions during this period are usually less critical for yields than for logistics and quality. The most significant window lies ahead, during flowering and early cherry development between September and November.

A transition toward El Niño in the middle of the year increases the risk of warmer and drier conditions in key arabica-growing regions such as Minas Gerais, precisely during this stage. Although forecasts still carry uncertainty — partly because of the well-known “spring predictability barrier” — subsurface warming in the Pacific suggests drought risks could intensify as Brazil enters its next production cycle.

In Colombia,  the arrival of El Nino has heightened the alarms of the electricity and the agricultural sector. In the electricity sector, the shortfall of natural gas would likely lead to an electricity rationing, and blackouts if droughts reduce water levels for power generation, the head of thermal power generators' association Andeg, Alejandro Castaneda, said.

In the agricultural sector, the National Federation of Coffee Growers announced that, together with the government, it will invest COP50billion ($13.8 million) to support coffee fertilization ahead of the expected arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon in the second half of the year.

The investment will be contributed from the Coffee Price Stabilization Fund created in 2019. Fedecafé will provide COP40 billion, while the government will contribute the remaining COP10 billion.

The coffee federation also said the resources will support fertilization and renovation efforts in 421 municipalities, while the funds provided by the government through the agriculture ministry will support coffee growers in 208 of Colombia’s 629 coffee-producing municipalities.

The federation also noted that the fertilization program for renovated and productive areas, under which coffee growers will contribute 70% and the program 30%, will include an additional 5% equity bonus for fertilizers aimed at women and young coffee growers.

Exports of Ecuadorian industrialized coffee fell 24% year over year in 2025 to 419,874 60-kg bags, according to the Ecuadorian coffee exporters association, Anecafé.

The export value of industrialized coffee declined 2% to $124 million. Ecuador has been losing competitiveness against other producers due to rising costs for electricity, fuel, and supplies, said Pablo Pinargote, general manager of Anecafé.

Meanwhile, Ecuador exported 468,736 60-kg bags of green coffee between January and December, down 18% from the previous year, the association added

By Diana Delgado

Source: Anecafe

 

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