India’s Coffee Board Issues First 2026 Forecast, Proves Much More Optimistic Than USDA

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Mon, 09 Feb 2026, 14:11

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - India’s coffee sector is entering the 2025–26 crop year pulled between two competing narratives: one of record optimism from the Coffee Board of India and another of sober caution from the United States Department of Agriculture. The divergence is not unusual, but this year the gap is striking—large enough to shape exporter strategies, roaster expectations, and the market’s global interpretation of India’s role in the supply chain.

According to the Coffee Board’s post‑blossom estimates, the country is headed toward a historic harvest of 403,000 metric tonnes, roughly 6.72 million 60‑kilogram bags, a jump of about 11 percent over last year’s final crop of 363,500 tonnes. By the Board’s measure, both Arabica and Robusta are expected to post healthy gains, with Arabica climbing to 118,125 tonnes and Robusta to 284,875 tonnes. Most of this growth is concentrated in the traditional producing regions—Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu—which together are projected to contribute 3.85 lakh tonnes. Karnataka alone, long the engine of India’s coffee output, is forecast to reach 280,275 tonnes, buoyed by strong showings in Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan.

But optimism in New Delhi has not erased the concerns rising from the plantations themselves. Grower associations across Karnataka and Kerala have warned that the Coffee Board’s early-season estimates may prove overly generous once the full impact of the monsoon is accounted for. Excessive, extended rainfall through the season has triggered black rot in Arabica and fruit rot in Robusta, damaging flowering, disrupting pollination, and raising the likelihood of yield losses. Several planter groups argue the Board’s Arabica projections, in particular, may not hold—some suggesting output may fall short of even 100,000 tonnes. These on‑ground observations mirror the findings of independent field reporting, which documents widespread berry drop, stem damage, and inconsistent fruit set following heavy rains concentrated between May and October.

It is exactly this post‑monsoon reality that shapes the USDA’s December 2025 Semi‑Annual Report, which offers a more cautious benchmark: 6.0 million bags for 2025–26, essentially flat from its previous forecast. In USDA’s accounting, India’s Arabica production is expected to reach 1.4 million bags, while Robusta settles at 4.8 million, both constrained by yield declines tied to excessive monsoon rainfall and disease pressure. Where the Coffee Board sees a record crop, the USDA sees a vulnerable one, still recovering from weather volatility and fungal outbreaks.

The divergence also extends to trade. While India has enjoyed strong export value growth in recent years, the USDA expects shipments to decline by about 3 percent this season, falling just under 6 million bags. Record-high green coffee prices have made European buyers more cautious, shortening their contracting cycles and prompting many to procure only for immediate needs. Market behavior suggests European roasters are wary of exposure at current prices, and USDA analysts note a clear shift toward three‑ to four‑month contracts, a sharp departure from the twelve‑month positions common in more stable years. This dynamic intersects with Brazil’s strengthened ability to push Arabica into the U.S. market after recent tariff adjustments—a change that indirectly intensifies competition for India in its core European destinations.

Domestic consumption tells a different story. The USDA estimates Indian demand at 1.3–1.4 million bags, driven primarily by soluble coffee, which continues to benefit from a GST reduction to five percent. Though India’s per‑capita coffee consumption remains extremely low by global standards, the upward trend is consistent and meaningful, particularly for manufacturers who view the domestic instant market as an emerging anchor rather than an afterthought.

Taken together, the Coffee Board’s record estimate and the USDA’s caution represent two sides of the same unfolding season. The Board’s numbers capture the promise of the early crop, shaped by strong flowering and favorable pre‑monsoon patterns, while the USDA’s reflect the reality of what followed: a damaging monsoon, a surge in fungal disease, and a tightening in export momentum. The truth of India’s 2025–26 crop will likely land somewhere between the two—a harvest larger than last year’s but short of the record projected in the immediate aftermath of blossoming.

For global buyers, the implications are clear. Planning based solely on the Coffee Board’s 403,000‑tonne figure carries risk; the USDA’s 6‑million‑bag benchmark remains the more reliable foundation for procurement decisions in the first half of the year. For Indian exporters, Robusta continues to offer a stable path forward, supported by persistent demand in espresso and instant segments. Arabica, by contrast, is poised for volatility, not only because of weather‑related losses but also due to the delicate ecological balance the variety requires—one increasingly threatened by erratic climate patterns.

As India waits for the Coffee Board’s post‑monsoon revisions, the debate between optimism and realism remains unresolved. But one conclusion is already clear: the 2025–26 season will not be defined merely by the size of the crop, but by how accurately the industry interprets it—and how swiftly it adapts to a future in which climate uncertainty, not acreage or tradition, is the decisive force in Indian coffee.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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