Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Ipea, Conab and Cepea Point to Slowdown in Prices of Coffee, Other Major Brazilian Agricultural Products
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
Ipea, Conab and Cepea Point to Slowdown in Prices of Coffee, Other Major Brazilian Agricultural ProductsCoffeeNetwork (New York) - Prices for major agricultural products point to a slowdown over the third quarter of this year. This is what data shows from the report, Agricultural Prices and Markets, released by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) in partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab) and the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea/Esalq/USP). The analysis is the result of the monitoring of domestic and international prices, in addition to the balance of supply and demand of the main Brazilian agricultural products related to the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 harvests.
According to the document, some factors are contributing to the recent fall in prices in the sector, which have been on a high trajectory since 2020 – intensified with the conflict in Eastern Europe. Among them, the expectation of increasing the supply of various products stands out. Brazil, which is an important player in the international market, will contribute to the next harvest (2022/2023) with expected growth of 22.3% in soybean, 5.3% in bran and 5.3% in oil compared to the previous harvest - corn (12.0%), cotton (16.7%) and coffee (5.6%).
In addition to offering the products on the market, ipea's associate researcher and one of the publication's coordinators, Ana Cecília Kreter points out that international prices impact the domestic price because Brazil exports most of these commodities. "As the country is competitive and one of the main players in the international market for most agricultural commodities, increased international demand implies increased shipments, see China," he said. In fact,
The energy crisis has also contributed to the rise in production costs at different stages of the chain, since energy is one of the items of inflation calculation. According to José Ronaldo Souza Júnior, coordinator of Economic Growth and Development at Ipea, "the combination of rising costs with inflation in general has helped in the slowdown in global consumption and may further impact food consumption in the coming months." In the European Union, which is Brazil's second largest importer of agricultural commodities, energy supply was even more severe. As of February this year, 37.5% of the gas consumed in Europe came from Russia and since then the bloc has been seeking alternatives to Russian gas.
The Cepea/Esalq indicator for the price of arabica coffee fell throughout the third quarter of 2022, influenced by the favorable climate for Brazilian crops and the drop in international demand. In Brazil, the more consistent rains in most coffee producing regions, since the end of September, helped in the initial development of the crop. Outside the country, the economic slowdown in the United States United States and in Europe and the consequent expectation of a reduction in the consumption of the drink reinforced the movement of devaluation of the price of coffee in Brazil in the period. With the continuation of price declines in October, the Indicator closed below R$ 1 thousand per 60 kg bag at the end of last month, a level not seen since August 2021, in nominal terms.
The latest survey for the 2022 harvest, released by Conab, estimates a production of 50.380 million bags of processed coffee (arabica and conilon), which represents an increase of 5.6% compared to the harvest 2021. This increase is due to a slight expansion of 1.7% in the area under production and better yields achieved, especially, by conilon coffee. The meteorological conditions recorded between May and September 2021 were decisive for the lower-than-expected increase in relation to the 2021 harvest. However, in comparison the 2020 harvest, a year of positive bienniality, like the current one, there was a reduction of 20.1% in the total produced. Minas Gerais, the largest producing state, expects 22.033 million bags of processed coffee, a drop of 0.5% in relation to the 2021 harvest.
After a significant rise in 2021, the international price of Arabica coffee in January 2022 reached stability on a downward trend. In October, the price of the commodity was 15.6% below the level at the beginning of the year and 1.7% less than October last year. The projection by the USDA for world production is recovering part of the global supply in the 2022-2023 harvest, in part due to positive expectations for Brazil, which will have a positive biennial year. An increase of 0.7% in global supply is projected and 2.8% in Brazilian exports – the adverse weather events that have occurred recently in some areas of production in Brazil have not changed so far the projection of production for the next year. It is worth mentioning that the 2021-2022 harvest was especially impacted by the negative biennial of the Brazilian crop and by the frosts in the country, which affected the international coffee market, justifying the strong increase observed throughout the year, which registered a peak, but not the historical maximum.
Rains in Brazilian producing regions since September induced good flowering, and the expectation is for growth in production in the country – even in the face of hail in important areas of arabica in recent weeks, as in Minas Gerais. In general, expectations of greater supply in Brazil and lower global demand has already resulted in a drop in domestic and futures prices for arabica inNew York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures). On the other hand, the Regional Cooperative of Coffee Growers in Guaxupé (Cooxupe), the largest coffee cooperative in Brazil, pointed out that next year's crop will be as weak as 2022. If confirmed, this result will go against the market consensus, which expects 2023 to be an abundant harvest. Conab also signals the possibility of reversing the biennial arabica coffee – the most impacted by this cycle – and points out that climate adversities are the most preponderant factor in the adjustment of such results. As for international prices, the scenario is one of price stabilization with a downward trend.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11
August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.