StoneX logo

June '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

June '23 UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Vice President- Fertilizer
major global uan export location price graph
As mentioned in other products, the price graphs should be viewed by their price direction, not their absolute price.  The first graph looks at the Black Sea and NOLA values on a short ton basis.  The second looks at the same points except in metric ton.  Both are in USD.

image 72644

 
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Global
Russian exports continue.  European nitrogen facilities are either restarting or are getting closer with each drop in Dutch TTF.  Urea/NH3 values continue to fall.
Hard to not look at the global UAN landscape and not see values lower short term.
As with anything, things can and likely will change in a hurry.  UAN is no different but looking at how the current factors line up, hard to not see further price weakness in the coming weeks/months.
North America
Like global values:
UAN should see price corrections lower going into the following weeks/months.
In addition to global price ideas likely lower, it appears that N.A. inventories will be relatively high going into summer.  Combining that with the possible loss of export opportunities to Europe and Russian imports likely to continue is rough.  Looking at current UAN values vs urea values makes it worse.
Things can and will change but again, lot of factors looking softer.
should you buy your Spring '23 or spring '24 uan needs today?
Global
With so many factors leaning bearish today:
If one can hold off on purchases, it should favor the buyer
However, do not wait too long.  The entire market structure is seeing the same thing. That means importers will be less willing to bring vessels.  It means distributors are less willing to fill tanks.  It means retailers are less willing to purchase physical product for anticipated needs.  Softer prices means the value chain slows way down...
North America
Same goes for North America:
If you can hold off, the direction is lower...but do not wait too long
We have already seen this reported several times across North America.  "I went to XYZ to get my spring needs and they didn't have it and were not sure when they would get it".  In a downward market, no one in the supply chain wants to step in.  Who wants to wear that risk or worse, take that margin hit.  Holding off on purchases while knowing the product will be available is one thing.  Holding off on purchases and not being sure the product will be there is a completely different mess.  
Personally, I would rather make sure that product is there when I need it.  That's just me.
general global uan information
image 59308
image 42602
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Russian tonnage remains big discount with limited homes available
Today, while Russian produced phosphate and urea have little issue in finding homes, UAN is a completely different story with UAN being a much smaller and less diverse marketplace.
Canada has duties in place that effectively block direct shipments.  Australia has done the same.  As European buyers if they can purchase Russian product.
That leaves very few destinations around the world with the U.S. being the single largest (hence the large amount of imports from Russia).  With few destinations, fob Russia UAN values have moved to a sizeable discount.  Their price has to get aggressive to offset other competitors for the few destinations available to them.  This is obviously harmful to Russian producers but is a big win for those places the product can still flow.
While Russian imports continue, U.S. produced UAN continues to export to Europe
There is nothing "normal" about current trade patterns of global UAN.
U.S. manufacturers continue to take advantage of European UAN production shortfalls.  While hope is rising that European production will continue to climb back toward 100%, there is a lot of ground to make up and until that story ends, U.S. product will flow that direction.  This helps to keep U.S. supplies tighter than they normally would be.
However, on the other end of the spectrum, Russian produced UAN continues to flow to the U.S. at a rapid pace which has helped to offset the export flows to Europe.  
None of this takes into account U.S. / N.A. demand which, from our POV, has shifted much more heavily to urea than many in the marketplace thought possible.
It will be fascinating to see how all of this proceeds.  Will European shipments continue to bail out N.A. long positions or will that dry up and force them to stay "home" and get competitive?  Will Russia continue to be a thorn in the side of market long positions?
image 72673
image 72675
How will N.A. UAN react to low summer urea values?
If the last year has taught us anything, it is that farmers will shift their demand from one nitrogen product to another in times of large price differentials.  While some may not think it possible, farmers will absolutely switch their N source when they can save big money.
So will this fresh lesson be remembered this summer?
It should and UAN "should" move to a discount on a price per pound of actual N vs urea.  That is what recent history has shown and it is what should happen if we are going to be as extremely tight supplied on urea and relatively long on UAN.  UAN should move to a discount vs urea in an attempt to buy that demand back.
But therein lies the question.  Will that lesson be learned.  
There is still a lot of calendar between now and summer fill programs which will set spring '24 values.  
European production outlook continues to improve
In the last few weeks, we have seen 3 reports/announcements regarding European nitrogen plants restarting.  One in Romania, one in Italy and one in Poland.  There are still several plants that remain offline with no word of restart plans...but these 3 are a start!
With Europe representing approximately 20% of global UAN production, their restarts or lack of go a long way in influencing global UAN outlooks.  Values have already been under pressure globally with the nitrogen complex falling hard from last years high's.  Buyers have learned that they can be patient on purchases which adds even more stress.
Europe needs to continue being watched for further signs.  If this trend continues, it is going to be tough for values to hold.
image 72682
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 
Number 1 importer (2.5mmt in 2021) AND number 5 exporter (563kmt in 2021)
Top 5 import origins
  1. Russia (42%)
  2. Trinidad/Tobago (33%)
  3. Canada (17%)
  4. Algeria (4%)
  5. Netherlands (2%)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. France (31%)
  2. Belgium (18%)
  3. Argentina (14%)
  4. Germany (6%)
  5. Poland (5%)

Price Comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -4% or approximately $10 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -5% or approximately $15 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -51% or approximately $275 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -54% or approximately $310 lower

image 72645

U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $20 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -8% or approximately $24 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -49% or approximately $282 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -51% or approximately $302 lower

image 72646

Black Sea (Russia)

Number 1 exporter (2.2mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. United States (49%)
  2. Australia (16%)
  3. Argentina (6%)
  4. France (5%)
  5. Canada (4%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $15 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -41% or approximately $100 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -72% or approximately $376 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -75% or approximately $439 lower

image 72647

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Export opportunity for U.S. manufacturers continues – if not for the export opportunity to Europe, U.S. manufacturers would be seeing even more price pressure than they are seeing now.  As long as Europe remains offline, this presents an arbitrage opportunity and a chance to clear tonnage from the system.
  • Europe continues to fall short of normal production levels – representing nearly 20% of global capacity, the longer Europe remains short of 100% production capacity, the longer the world S&D remains tight.
  • Grain values have held higher than expected – if we continue to see grain values hold or push higher, it could cause demand to step in earlier than expected.  If manufacturers are able to get a decent sales book on, that could give them a toe hold to keeping prices steady...or to provide a step higher. 
Bearish Factors
  • Russian imports continue heavy into the U.S. – more supply usually means lower prices.  As long as Russian destinations remain limited, the U.S. should expect imports to continue.  Added supplies typically mean lower prices. 
  • Carryover inventory to summer in N.A. appears higher than normal – many didn't think it possible but the belief is growing that farmers have spoken.  If values get out of whack, they will move to the low price alternative.  It looks like this is the case this year and should mean higher inventory carryover to summer.   
  • European production has improved with lower natural gas values – while far from 100%, recent announcements of plant restarts will certainly send shivers down the spine of manufacturers and suppliers.  It's another reason to get aggressive with price.  Seller slightly lower today or run the risk of selling much lower tomorrow. 
Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

image 72648image 72649
image 72650
image 72651
image 72652
image 72653
image 72654

image 72655

 
Josh Linville’s focal points
  • European production rates - as one of the leading production regions in the world, their production rates matter.  If they continue to ramp up production, it means more supply in the market and likely softer values.  If they start to fall apart again, just the opposite.
  • Urea values & UAN's reaction to them - the global urea marketplace continues to appear bearish in the short term and that is likely to take UAN price ideas with it.  
  • Corn markets - I'm a corn guy.  I can't help it.  Then again, so is a lot of the fertilizer industry. With that, the corn markets have held much better than most had expected.  This has helped to support some of the price ideas out there.  If we start to see corn prices slip again, it will be hard for UAN values to hold.  They are a package deal.
  • How will the market react this far from spring '24?  - after the last year, it sure feels as though buyers are going to be reluctant to step forward.  Interest costs are a much bigger deal now.  Folks will remember how the market got cheaper the longer they waited.  There is a lot of time between now and next spring and it is going to be harder for sellers to convince buyers to step forward.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”), StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (“SFFC”) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”). SFI, SFFC and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI, SFFC or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by SFI, SFFC or SXM. The FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc., a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc., is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a futures commission merchant and commodity trading advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. is currently registered as a Futures Commission Merchant or equivalent in all provinces of Canada and is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

 
 
  • Fertilizers

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.