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Mexico’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 3.59 Million Bags, USDA

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork

Mexico’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 3.59 Million Bags, USDA

CoffeeNetwork – According to the latest USDA attache report, Mexico’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee crop is forecast at 3.59 million 60-kilogram bags, up 1.6% from the previous crop year.

(From the USDA report)

Production: The Post forecast for MY 2021/22 coffee production is 3.59 million 60/kg bags, reflecting a minimal increase of 1.6 percent from the previous MY due to expected ongoing drought conditions and labor shortages. SADER, the National Industrialization of Coffee Association (ANICAFE) and the Mexican Association of Coffee (AMECAFE) forecast production for MY 2020/21 at 4 million 60/kg bags, however, Post believes that precipitation anomalies at the beginning of the harvest (Fig. 4), drought conditions, and pest and labor challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic will make this forecast difficult to reach. The MY 2020/21 forecast is revised down from previous estimates to 3.53 million 60/kg bags, on updated information from SIAP that reflects reductions due to intensive rain at the beginning of the harvest season followed by abnormally dry weather, and severe labor shortages in Chiapas. Production through March 2021 is reported at 3.1 million 60/kg bags.

Area: Coffee planted, and harvested area is forecasted at 0.7 and 0.63 million hectares (ha) for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September). According to the Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) efforts will be focused on replanting existing areas with a higher density of disease resistant trees. Drought is expected to reduce harvested area for MY 2020/21 to 0.6 million ha. Contacts report the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and related sanitary measures have significantly slowed efforts to recover planted area and provide technical assistance and inputs to control coffee pests. Additionally, heightened southern border restrictions have resulted in a shortage of field workers, many of which come from Guatemala.

Yield: Coffee yields vary according to field management, weather, altitude and variety. Post forecasts a national yield for MY 2021/22 at 5.6 60 kg/bags/ha, a slight recovery from MY 2020/21 levels forecasted at 5.5 60 kg/bags/ha.

Trade: The Post export forecast for MY 2021/22 is 2.95 million 60/kg bags. The United States continues to be Mexico’s top market for green coffee. Exports of soluble coffee during the last two years decreased, while soluble coffee imports increased due to a shift to at home preparations during the COVID-19 pandemic. MY 2021/22 exports of soluble coffee are forecast to rebound after as a result of Nestle investments. The main destinations for soluble and roasted coffee are the United States and Colombia.

Consumption: The MY 2021/22 Post consumption forecast is 2.6 million 60 kg/bags. Roasted coffee consumption is expected to recover modestly in MY 2021/22 after COVID-19 related closures of the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector led to an increase in soluble consumption rose due to an increase in at home preparations.

Stocks: The Post forecast for MY 2021/22 ending stocks is 159,000 60 kg/bags. MY 2020/21 stocks are revised 61 percent lower than previous estimated at 89,000 due to lower production.

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