
Daily Coffee Report 7/2/26
Daily coffee report

- Coffee
By: Carolina Giraldo, Market Intelligence Analyst • Brazil Market Intell
Updated on: 06/29/2026 · Next weekly edition: 07/06/2026 · Next official NOAA/CPC update: 07/09/2026
Official NOAA Alert: El Niño Advisory| Reading layer | What does it mean? | Weekly reading | Practical message | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STATUS, INTENSITY AND TREND | ||||
| Official NOAA status | Indicates whether El Niño conditions are already present. | El Niño Advisory · in effect since June 2026 (CPC/NCEP slides of 06/29/2026). | The event has already begun from an operational standpoint. | EL NIÑO PRESENT |
| Current intensity | Shows how strong the signal is right now (weekly OISST vs. quarterly RONI). | Weekly Niño 3.4: +1.2 °C (moderate range). Quarterly RONI (MAM/2026): −0.1 °C — still neutral by the historical criterion, which requires 5 consecutive overlapping seasons ≥ +0.5 °C. | The weekly signal already points to El Niño; not yet a closed historical episode. | MODERATE |
| Forecast trend | Shows where the event may evolve in the coming months. | 63% chance of very strong El Niño in NDJ/2026-27 (CPC, 06/29/2026); ~1 in 3 chance of remaining weaker than very strong. CFS.v2 keeps El Niño through the boreal winter. | Climate risk rises in tier; specific impacts are not yet guaranteed. | STRENGTHENING LIKELY |
| OCEAN | ||||
| Pacific waters (SST) | Shows whether the central and eastern Pacific is warmer than normal. | Weekly anomalies (OISST): Niño 4 +0.6 °C · Niño 3.4 +1.2 °C · Niño 3 +1.5 °C · Niño 1+2 +2.5 °C. Warming concentrated in the eastern Pacific (Eastern Pacific — EP pattern): east–west gradient of +1.9 °C, strongest at the far east (Niño 1+2) and decreasing westward. | El Niño physical signal already consolidated across the equatorial band. | POSITIVE SIGNAL |
| Subsurface heat | Shows whether there is accumulated heat below the surface (0 to 300 m). | Subsurface heat anomaly increased again in the central Pacific (after a drop in Apr–May). A new downwelling Kelvin wave initiated in June 2026 (the 4th in this cycle) reinforces the heat reservoir at depth (0–300 m). | Heat is available to sustain the warming, and the reservoir has started growing again. | POSITIVE SIGNAL |
| Thermocline and upwelling | Shows the slope of the thermocline and the rise of cold waters in the east. | Thermocline slope index below average (flatter between west and east); reduced coastal upwelling off South America. | Less cold water favors the persistence of warm waters at the surface. | FAVORS EL NIÑO |
| ATMOSPHERE | ||||
| Pacific winds | Shows whether trade winds are favoring (easterly) or hindering (westerly) El Niño. | Westerly anomalies at 850 hPa evident from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific over the last 30 days and persistent in the central Pacific. Trade winds remain weakened in the central basin. | The atmosphere is favoring the eastward expansion of the warming. | RESPONDING |
| Clouds and rainfall (OLR) | Via satellite, shows where it is raining more in the tropics: where there are heavy clouds and rainfall, less heat escapes to space; where it is dry, more heat escapes — this contrast reveals the tropical rainfall pattern. | Negative OLR (more clouds/rain) near the Date Line and over the central-eastern Pacific; positive OLR (dry conditions) over the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, with re-emergence over Indonesia in early June. | Classic rainfall displacement in the El Niño pattern. | RESPONDING |
| Upper-level circulation (200 hPa) | Velocity potential at 200 hPa shows where the tropical atmosphere diverges (favors rain) or converges (suppresses rain). | Persistent anomalous divergence over the central-western equatorial Pacific and anomalous convergence over the eastern Pacific — pattern consistent with El Niño. | Confirms that ocean and atmosphere are moving in the same direction. | CONFIRMING |
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Daily coffee report


July 2 – All eyes are on the labor market to start the day, with the Friday holiday pushing June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report up to the same day, and release time, as weekly Jobless Claims. It was a very ugly headline print for Non-Farm Payrolls with only 57k jobs added in June, effectively only half of the expected 110k. To make matters worse, both April and May were revised lower by 31k and 43k, respectively, to now show a combined 277k jobs added instead of 351k. Despite this negativity, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from the 4.3% seen from March through May, representing the lowest headline unemployment reading since June of last year. However, the drop was largely a function of a collapsing labor force participation rate, falling 0.3% month-over-month to sit at only 61.5% in June, a low not seen since March 2021 during the pandemic recovery. Average hourly earnings came in as expected, up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, as did the average workweek at 34.3 hours.


Daily coffee report

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.