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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

In May 2024, global steel markets experienced significant movements influenced by macroeconomic trends and market-specific developments. A noticeable divergence emerged between the Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which rose to 51.7, and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which showed contraction. High stocks and prices continue to hurt consumption and new orders in China. The State Council's new energy conservation and carbon reduction plan aims to boost efficiency, while policy changes drive higher demand for second-hand homes, although new home sales remain unaffected. In the US, manufacturing recovery, inflation concerns, and modest price gains impact the steel market, while EU consumer confidence remains low, reflecting economic uncertainties. Additionally, rumors suggest that China might lower crude steel production by 18-20 million mt this year to meet emission reduction targets, potentially impacting global steel and raw material markets.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

US HRC steel prices showed varied trends. November 2024 prices increased by 1.56% to $845 per ton, and October 2024 prices rose by 0.72% to $840 per ton. However, August 2024 prices decreased by 2.48% to $785 per ton. Recently, HRC prices per SMU fell week-over-week to $730 per ton, down from $750 per ton, with a range of $680-780 per ton. The lower end dropped by $40, indicating some deals were likely made to fill order books. Despite "okay" demand driven by the auto sector and data centers, spot activity has been lighter than usual, suggesting restocking might occur after the summertime lull. On the plate side, imports continue to pressure the market, though the impact on military applications remains limited. Busheling scrap prices for June 2024 also fell by 2.22% to $440 per ton.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets - SGX Iron Ore

Today, SGX iron ore futures for July 2024 increased by 1.28% to $110.05 USD/MT, breaking a five-day losing streak. However, Citi estimates that iron ore prices will plunge below $100 USD/MT into a bear market due to ongoing concerns about Chinese steel demand and increased supply from Australia. Iron ore prices have plummeted 13% to $107 USD/MT in the past fortnight, and Citi expects them to sink further to $95 USD/MT. The recent price decline is driven by weak demand, high port inventories, and a seasonal slowdown in construction activity. Analysts suggest that despite some policy measures in China, new project initiations remain weak, further dampening steel and iron ore demand. Inventory levels at Chinese ports are high, and steel margins are negative, adding to the bearish outlook for iron ore prices. Additionally, China's crude steel output in January-April 2024 totaled 343.67 million mt, a 3% decrease year-on-year, with further output cuts anticipated.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

EU Ferrous Markets - LME Turkish Steel Scrap

At the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) World Recycling Convention & Exhibition, the bureau's Ferrous Division reported a 12% drop in recycled steel usage globally, except in the US and India. Turkey maintained its position as the world's foremost recycled steel importer despite a 10.1% drop in imports, reaching 18.77 million mt in 2023. The decline is attributed to reduced electric arc furnace activity. The EU-27 countries remained the leading recycled steel exporters, with Turkey being the main buyer. Additionally, LME Turkish steel scrap futures showed positive movements, with June 2024 futures settling at $384.00, up by $3.00, and October 2024 futures settling at $391.50, up by $1.50.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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