StoneX logo

Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

US HRC prices experienced significant declines, with the February-25 contract dropping 3.46% to $780 per short ton, and notable decreases in the October-24 and September-24 contracts. Despite these bearish trends, the June-24 contract saw a slight uptick to $720 per short ton. In the EU, Turkish scrap prices rose modestly, with March 2025 up by 1.81% to $394.5 per metric ton, reflecting a robust market influenced by regulatory incentives favoring scrap. In Asia, SGX Iron Ore prices increased, with the May-25 contract up by 0.95% to $102.2 per metric ton, amid a stable demand outlook and resilient Chinese steel output. Overall, these changes highlight the varied market dynamics across regions, influenced by specific economic conditions and market sentiment.

Upcoming Data Releases

image-20240620082121-1

North American (US) HRC Steel Market

US HRC prices saw significant declines, with the most substantial drop occurring in the February-25 contract, down by 3.46% to $780 per short ton. The October-24 and September-24 contracts also experienced notable decreases of 2.88% and 2.76%, respectively. The most oversold contracts are for September-24, August-24, and June-24, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment in the market. Despite these declines, some upward movement was noted with the June-24 contract trading at $720 per short ton, reflecting a cautious market outlook.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

image-20240620084904-6

StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

image-20240620084842-5

StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

SGX Iron Ore prices are seeing modest increases, with the May-25 contract rising by 0.95% to $102.2 per metric ton. Downstream, Chinese steel output recovered +2.7% YOY in May to 1,093 Mt per year after a weak April (-7% YoY). Chinese steel exports remain at their highest levels since mid-2016. Concerns about Simandou (~120 Mt per year) and Onslow (35 Mt per year) output are justified, but experts at JP Morgan don’t expect the cost curve to change materially before 2027. Prices remain resilient over $100/t high port stocks, which suggests a S/D balance. As such JP Morgan 2H24 price forecasts remain at $110/t; however risks are skewed to the downside. This increase in SGX Iron Ore prices reflects a stable demand outlook despite broader market uncertainties.
 

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

image-20240620084817-4

StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

Turkish scrap prices have shown some increases, with March 2025 contracts up by 1.81% to $394.5 USD/MT, April 2025 up by 1.67% to $396 USD/MT, and May 2025 up by 1.41% to $396 USD/MT. However, current price assessments are trading sideways at $406/Mt since June 14th. Overall, the market for scrap remains robust with relative price of iron ore and regulatory incentives favoring scrap over use of primary raw materials. That said, any price appreciation remains contingent on broader market conditions, namely EU / country specific Central Bank rate declines. 

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

image-20240620084752-3

StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

image-20240620084723-2

StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Base Metals

Weekly Base Metal Macroeconomic Slides

The global macroeconomic backdrop remains increasingly mixed, with resilient growth across the US and Eurozone contrasting against a continued slowdown in China. Strong Western economic activity, supported by robust manufacturing data, ongoing AI-driven investment, and resilient corporate earnings, has helped sustain industrial demand and improve broader market sentiment. However, China's weakening manufacturing sector, subdued domestic consumption, persistent property market challenges, and declining construction activity continue to weigh on the outlook for global metals demand.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals

StoneX TV:Indonesia's Metal Export Ban Shocks China

Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, explains how Indonesia's tightening control over mineral exports, China's upcoming Politburo meeting and new carbon regulations are reshaping the outlook for nickel, aluminium, copper and other base metals. She discusses why supply-side risks may prove more influential than broad stimulus expectations during the second half of the year.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals

StoneX TV: Copper's Next Move Is About Supply, Not AI

Copper prices are back in focus as physical supply tightens, inventories decline and demand strengthens. Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, explains why the copper market is becoming fundamentally tighter, how Section 232 tariff uncertainty and China's buying patterns are reshaping global flows, and why AI, electrification and grid investment continue to support the long-term outlook despite recent weakness in technology stocks.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.