StoneX logo

Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

The global steel market has faced a multitude of challenges and fluctuations, reflecting regional economic conditions and shifting demand dynamics. In the United States, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have declined for ten consecutive weeks, highlighting a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, particularly in sectors like agriculture and construction. Europe's steel market also remains weak, with German and Italian sheet prices continuing to fall amidst low demand and impending EU safeguard measures affecting import quotas. In China, adverse weather conditions and economic uncertainties have dampened market sentiment, despite resilience in the automotive sector. Meanwhile, Asia has seen a drop in prices for imported sheet products due to weak demand and robust supply, with significant decreases in HRC, cold-rolled coil (CR), and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) coil prices.

Upcoming Data Releases

image-20240624082535-1

North American (US) HRC Steel Market

The US HRC market experienced notable gains today, particularly in the early 2025 contracts, indicating some optimism or speculative activity for future prices. The largest price increase was in the January-25 contract, which rose by 2.09% to $830 per short ton. The February-25 and March-25 contracts also increased by 1.22% to $830 per short ton. Despite these gains, the current bearish sentiment is reflected by the oversold conditions for August-24 and July-24 contracts, with RSI values of 13.14 and 20.81, respectively. Additionally, spot prices for US Midwest HRC dropped by $5 to $710 per short ton, continuing a 35% YTD decline.

Large-volume, low-priced deals continue to dominate due to an imbalance between supply and demand, particularly affecting mills exposed to sectors like agriculture and construction. Service center inventories have steadily built up in 2024, and until there's a need for restocking or a reduction in mill output, prices are unlikely to rise in the near term.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

image-20240624082658-3

StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

image-20240624082953-6

StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

Iron ore prices continued to decline, driven by concerns over Chinese demand and high inventory levels, indicating a bearish outlook. The largest price decrease was observed in the January-25 contract, down by 2.52% to $100 per metric ton. The December-24 and November-24 contracts also saw decreases of 2.32% and 2.28%, respectively. Spot prices for 62% Fe iron ore also fell by $1 to $107 per metric ton, maintaining a YTD drop of 25%. This trend of falling prices is consistent across multiple contracts, reflecting ongoing pessimism in the market.

Generally, the iron ore market in China and Asia has been influenced by several factors leading to price fluctuations. In China, domestic sheet prices have declined by RMB10-20/mt week-on-week, primarily due to end-users' reluctance to purchase high-priced material amid flood warnings and adverse weather, which have disrupted construction and transportation activities.

As the off-season for demand approaches, combined with a lack of significant macroeconomic improvements, market sentiment has turned bearish, leading to cautiousness in both futures and spot markets. However, the automotive sector has shown resilience with slight increases in auto sales and a decrease in the auto inventory index, potentially supporting sheet demand during the summer lull. In the broader Asian market, prices for imported sheet products have also decreased due to weak demand and strong supply. Deals for hot-rolled coil (HRC) SAE1006 were concluded at lower prices, and offers from producers like Formosa Ha Tinh Steel have decreased by about $10/mt. Overall, the market is characterized by falling prices across HRC, cold-rolled coil (CR), and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) coil, reflecting the current weak demand and ample supply.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

image-20240624082921-5

StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

The Turkish scrap market showed minimal movement, with spot prices remaining unchanged at $386 per metric ton. This stability contrasts with the broader declines seen in other ferrous markets. Despite the steady spot price, the Turkish scrap market's overall sentiment remains cautious amid broader market uncertainties. More generally, Turkish scrap remains a favorite commodity for those invested in the carbon credits space despite current sideways price trends. 

More generally, Europe's aggressive decarbonization targets are expected to significantly impact steel futures prices. The steel industry, responsible for 5% of global emissions, is transitioning to low-carbon technologies, including electric arc furnaces and hydrogen utilization. The EU is the second largest steel producer in the world responsible for 11% of global steel production.

With approximately 60 projects in progress, targeting an 81.5 million mt/year CO2 reduction by 2030, the anticipated shift to greener production methods is poised to reshape market dynamics. As the industry moves away from carbon-intensive blast furnaces, futures prices may reflect the increased costs associated with adopting these new technologies and the anticipated scarcity of scrap metal, green energy, and hydrogen. The ongoing supply constraints and the need for substantial investment in infrastructure could drive up production costs, thereby influencing futures prices. Moreover, the expected rise in global steel demand by 30% by 2050 could further exacerbate price volatility in the futures market, as supply and demand dynamics adjust to the new low-carbon production landscape.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

image-20240624082817-4

StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

image-20240624082625-2

StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.