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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

Today's ferrous markets have exhibited diverse movements across different regions. In the US market, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices experienced notable declines, reversing the previous day's gains, with January and February 2025 contracts dropping by 3.61% to 800.00 USD/T, and the Busheling Scrap August 2024 contract falling by 3.8% to 380.00 USD/LT. In the Asian market, SGX Iron Ore prices showed minor increases, with the May 2025 contract rising by 0.85% to 98.99 USD/MT, and April and March 2025 contracts both increasing by 0.83%. Meanwhile, the European market saw Turkish scrap prices remain stable at $386 per metric ton, reflecting cautious sentiment and sustained interest from the carbon credits space.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

The US Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market has seen a mix of movements, reflecting a dynamic environment. Yesterday, the market experienced notable gains in early 2025 contracts, with the January 2025 contract rising by 2.09% to $830 per short ton, and the February and March 2025 contracts also increasing by 1.22% to $830 per short ton. These gains suggest some optimism or speculative activity for future prices. However, today's prices tell a different story, with both the January 2025 and February 2025 contracts dropping by 3.61% to 800.00 USD/T. This shift highlights the volatility and the current bearish sentiment, as indicated by oversold conditions in the August 2024 HRC contract, which has an RSI of 14.14. The Busheling Scrap market also saw a decline today, with the August 2024 contract down by 3.8% to 380.00 USD/LT. Large-volume, low-priced deals continue to dominate due to an imbalance between supply and demand, affecting sectors like agriculture and construction. Spot prices for US Midwest HRC dropped by $5 to $710 per short ton, continuing a 35% YTD decline, and until there's a need for restocking or a reduction in mill output, prices are unlikely to rise in the near term.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

In the Asian market, iron ore prices have continued to decline due to concerns over Chinese demand and high inventory levels, reflecting a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the largest price decrease was observed in the January 2025 contract, which fell by 2.52% to $100 per metric ton. The December 2024 and November 2024 contracts also saw decreases of 2.32% and 2.28%, respectively. Today, SGX Iron Ore prices showed minor increases, with the May 2025 contract up by 0.85% to 98.99 USD/MT, and the April 2025 and March 2025 contracts both rising by 0.83% to 99.54 USD/MT and 100.08 USD/MT, respectively, indicating a stabilizing trend. Spot prices for 62% Fe iron ore fell by $1 to $107 per metric ton, maintaining a 25% YTD drop. The Chinese market faces declining domestic sheet prices due to flood warnings and adverse weather affecting construction and transportation, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment. However, the automotive sector showed resilience, potentially supporting sheet demand. In the broader Asian market, weak demand and strong supply have led to decreased prices for imported sheet products and HRC, with Formosa Ha Tinh Steel lowering offers by about $10/mt.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

The European ferrous market experienced minimal movement in the Turkish scrap segment, with spot prices remaining unchanged at $386 per metric ton. Despite this stability, the overall sentiment remains cautious amid broader market uncertainties. Turkish scrap continues to attract interest from investors in the carbon credits space, even with current sideways price trends. More broadly, Europe’s aggressive decarbonization targets are set to significantly impact steel futures prices. The steel industry, responsible for 5% of global emissions, is transitioning to low-carbon technologies, including electric arc furnaces and hydrogen utilization. The EU, the second-largest steel producer globally, has approximately 60 projects targeting an 81.5 million mt/year CO2 reduction by 2030. This shift to greener production methods is poised to reshape market dynamics, with futures prices potentially reflecting increased costs associated with adopting new technologies and the anticipated scarcity of scrap metal, green energy, and hydrogen. Ongoing supply constraints and the need for substantial infrastructure investment could drive up production costs, influencing futures prices further. Additionally, the expected 30% rise in global steel demand by 2050 could exacerbate price volatility in the futures market as supply and demand dynamics adjust to the new low-carbon production landscape.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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