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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

The steel market is facing significant challenges across various segments. In the US, Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel is encountering resistance due to concerns about job losses, with opposition from the United Steelworkers union and President Biden. Concurrently, bearish options activity indicates potential negative developments for United States Steel, despite increased trading volume and a slight stock price rise to $36.45. US HRC Steel Futures are in a pronounced bearish trend, with prices for near-term contracts significantly below key moving averages and RSI values indicating oversold conditions, suggesting potential future price corrections. The outlook for steel scrap is bleak, with reports of paused deliveries and warnings against overshipping due to oversupply, likely leading to price drops for prime scrap and affecting the export market. Additionally, LME Turkish Scrap shows mixed movements with minimal changes in prices, but overall bearish market sentiment persists due to weak technical indicators and ongoing supply and demand pressures.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

US Steel Summary: Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion bid to acquire U.S. Steel is encountering significant obstacles due to concerns over potential job losses and plant closures. The United Steelworkers union, backed by President Biden, opposes the deal, highlighting loopholes in Nippon Steel's promises that could allow future layoffs under adverse business conditions. This opposition is pivotal as Biden seeks union support in crucial battleground states for the upcoming election. Concurrently, substantial bearish options activity on United States Steel has been observed, with investors betting on a price range between $35.00 and $55.00, suggesting potential foreknowledge of negative developments. Trading volume has increased, and the stock price has risen to $36.45, but RSI indicators hint at an approaching oversold condition, indicating high volatility and risk in the options market.

US HRC Steel Futures Summary: US HRC Steel Futures are currently experiencing a pronounced bearish trend. Prices across various contracts, such as HRC1 (July 2024) at $675 and HRC2 (August 2024) at $691, are below key moving averages, indicating strong downward momentum. The MACD lines for these contracts reflect significant negative values, and the ADX values suggest a strong bearish trend. RSI values for many contracts are in oversold territory, such as HRC1 with an RSI of 11.42, suggesting potential buying opportunities if market conditions improve. High volume and open interest in near-term contracts, like HRC2, indicate substantial trading activity and interest, pointing to a highly active market despite the prevailing bearish sentiment. The data suggests that while the market is currently under pressure, oversold conditions might lead to future price corrections or stabilization.

Steel Scrap Market Outlook: The outlook for steel scrap is notably bleak as we approach July. Reports from Northern Ohio indicate a major buyer has paused scrap deliveries due to oversupply, reflecting a softened order book. Similarly, sources from Chicago warn against over shipping, as mills are now avoiding carrying over excess shipments to the next month. This situation points to a probable price drop for prime scrap, affecting obsolescent grades and busheling. Additionally, the export market for steel scrap has remained quiet, with stable but potentially declining prices. This anticipated weakness in the domestic market could also impact pig iron prices. As a result, the domestic steel scrap market is expected to face significant downward pressure in the coming weeks.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

Iron ore prices rose for the second consecutive day, attracting buyers with the lowest prices since early April. Singapore futures for iron ore increased by as much as 3.3% on Wednesday, marking the highest intraday gain in a week. This upward movement comes amid improving outlooks for China's exports, which is expected to support growth. Additionally, a Hong Kong court's decision to adjourn the liquidation hearing of Chinese developer Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. to July has provided some market relief, offering more time for debt restructuring. Despite ongoing challenges in China's real estate sector, which have suppressed demand for steel and pressured iron ore prices, there is optimism that Beijing will introduce new stimulus measures to revitalize the struggling property market.

Today, font month iron ore prices traded 3.2% higher at $106.60. The largest price increases were seen in SGX Iron Ore futures, with the April 2025 contract up 3.58% to 103.1 USD/MT, the January 2025 contract up 3.17% to 104.35 USD/MT, and the November 2024 contract up 3.12% to 105.25 USD/MT. Futures on the Dalian Exchange and steel futures in Shanghai also climbed, reflecting the positive sentiment and renewed buying interest in the market.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

Recent data for LME Turkish Scrap (JB01 to JB12) shows mixed movements with slight variations in prices. The most notable changes include JB01 (July 2024) trading at $385.50, which shows minimal changes with a MACD Line of 30.6 and RSI of 21.6, indicating a strong bearish trend. JB03 (September 2024) at $382.00 and JB04 (October 2024) at $385.00 also reflect similar bearish conditions with MACD values of 23.6 and 27.6, respectively. The data shows that prices for near-term contracts are mostly below their key moving averages, suggesting ongoing downward pressure in the market.

Today's trading insights reveal that the price is up by 3.5 USD/MT, or 0.92%, since the prior close, indicating a slight positive movement within a generally bearish trend. The typical volume traded on the London Metal Exchange was 35,371 metric tonnes, with an average daily volume of 35,377 metric tonnes over the past 30 days. Further out, contracts like JB08 (February 2025) and JB12 (June 2025) are trading at $388.00 and $388.50, respectively, both showing less severe downward momentum compared to near-term contracts. The RSI values for these contracts are higher, indicating they are not as oversold as the near-term contracts. However, overall, the LME Steel Scrap market remains bearish, with most contracts trading below their 200-day moving averages and exhibiting weak technical indicators, such as low MACD values and RSI levels. The market sentiment suggests continued caution among traders, with ongoing pressures from both supply and demand dynamics.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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