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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

Global steel and iron markets are currently facing a mix of economic shifts and regulatory changes, impacting prices and market sentiment across regions. In Turkey, the ferrous export market has seen significant growth due to enhanced investor confidence following the country's removal from the Financial Action Task Force's "gray list." Meanwhile, Europe grapples with weak steel demand and price drops despite new tariffs aimed at reducing competition. The LME Steel Scrap market also shows bearish tendencies but hints at potential stabilization. In Asia, SGX iron ore prices are declining amidst concerns over demand and inventory levels, though recent property measures in China may boost future demand. In the US, hot-rolled coil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, with recent decreases announced by major producers like Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs. This complex landscape underscores the varying challenges and opportunities faced by the global steel and iron markets.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

US HRC steel prices showed significant increases today, with the September 2024 contract rising by 2.13% to $768 per short ton, the August 2024 contract increasing by 1.86% to $713 per short ton, and the October 2024 contract up by 1.8% to $790 per short ton. In the scrap market, the most oversold contracts were for US scrap in August 2024, September 2024, and July 2024, with RSI values of 14.98, 21.67, and 22.62, respectively. Additionally, Nucor announced a $35/t decrease in weekly hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices to $680 per short ton, marking the lowest level since April 24 this year. Cleveland-Cliffs opened its August HRC order book at a base price of $720 per short ton. Market prices for these products have fallen by about 17% since peaking in mid- to late April, driven by an oversupply and uncertain economic outlook.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

In the Asian market, SGX iron ore prices declined across multiple contracts, reflecting a bearish sentiment driven by ongoing concerns over demand and inventory levels. The May 2025 contract saw the largest decrease of 1.02% to $101.16 per metric ton, followed by the March 2025 contract down by 0.89% to $102.27 per metric ton, and the February 2025 contract decreasing by 0.88% to $102.81 per metric ton. Despite these declines, there are signs that Chinese demand may pick up following property measures across the country’s major cities. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have eased homebuying requirements and allowed for cheaper home loans, which could revive steel demand and boost iron ore prices. However, the real estate sector remains a headwind for China’s economic growth, with new home sales falling 23.6% year-on-year in the first five months and property investment down 10.1%. Iron ore futures in Singapore were little changed at $106.35 a ton, following a 4% rise over the previous two sessions, while contracts in Dalian edged lower and steel prices in Shanghai dipped.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

Year-to-date, Turkey's ferrous export value has surged by 21.3% year-on-year to $4.16 billion, bolstered by its removal from the Financial Action Task Force's "gray list" for successful measures against money laundering and terrorism financing. This positive development is expected to enhance investor confidence and attract foreign investments, benefiting Turkey’s steel and iron export market. However, the broader European steel market remains weak, with German and Italian hot-rolled coil prices dropping to €629/mt and €635/mt, respectively, due to low demand. Although a modest restocking occurred 4–6 weeks ago, it has not been sustained. New tariffs effective July 1 are anticipated to reduce competition for EU producers, but sluggish demand and resistance to price hikes by EU mills continue to pose challenges. In the LME Steel Scrap market, a generally bearish sentiment prevails, with most contracts trading below their long-term moving averages and displaying higher -DI values in the DMI. Despite this, there are indications of potential stabilization or minor recovery, as seen in the increasing prices from interval 1 to interval 2 and bullish technical signals like the Golden Cross in JB10. Volatility and price range suggest varied price movements, and low trading volumes indicate limited activity. 

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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