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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

The ferrous markets across the US, Asia, and Europe have experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various macroeconomic factors. In the US, steel prices are nearing a floor due to an oversupply and uncertain economic outlook, while in Asia, iron ore prices are impacted by Chinese steel production and inventory levels. Europe faces weak demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting its steel and natural gas markets.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

US HRC steel prices saw notable changes this week, with the September 2024 contract rising by 2.13% to $768 per short ton, August 2024 increasing by 1.86% to $713 per short ton, and October 2024 up by 1.8% to $790 per short ton. However, the benchmark HRC price fell to $670/st from $685/st. Nucor's HRC Consumer Spot Price dropped $35 to $680/st, and Cleveland-Cliffs set its August price at $720/st, down from $800/st. US HRC lead times fell to 4.6 weeks, with Platts reporting an increase to 4.5 weeks. The US scrap market saw the most oversold contracts for August, September, and July 2024, with RSI values of 14.98, 21.67, and 22.62, respectively.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicated a net increase in commercial longs by 1,778 contracts and commercial shorts by 1,498 contracts. Non-commercial longs decreased by 184 contracts, while non-commercial shorts increased by 17 contracts. The May Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell to 42.4 from April’s 48.3, indicating potential future declines in non-residential construction activity. Additionally, political and trade developments, such as potential tariffs and union negotiations, continue to influence market dynamics.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

In the Asian market, SGX iron ore prices saw significant increases, with the December 2024 contract rising by 3.28% to $108.1/MT, January 2025 up by 3.22% to $107.5/MT, and November 2024 up by 2.98% to $108.25/MT. Despite these gains, the May 2025 contract decreased by 1.02% to $101.16/MT. Over the past week, iron ore prices have risen by $6.48 USD/MT, representing a 6.27% increase, though today they declined by $0.1 USD/MT, a decrease of 0.09% since the prior close.

Chinese steel production increased by 2% WoW but fell 3% YoY, indicating fluctuating demand. Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remain high at around 150Mt, reflecting weak domestic steel demand. Easing homebuying requirements in major Chinese cities could boost steel demand and iron ore prices, but overall sentiment remains cautious due to high inventory levels and ongoing concerns about economic growth. Technical indicators show that iron ore prices crossed both the 100-day and 200-day rolling averages on June 7, suggesting a potential trend reversal from upward to downward. Trading activity has been rising, with the market trading 30 months forward and an average daily volume of 19.05 million metric tonnes over the past 30 days.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

In the European market, recent LME Turkish Steel Scrap data indicates a 2.77% price increase over the past five sessions, although prices remained static today. The price crossing the 100-day rolling average suggests a potential trend reversal, while declining trading activity underscores market volatility. These shifts occur amidst the European Commission's imposition of a 15% cap on HRC imports per quarter from non-EU countries, aimed at safeguarding domestic producers but complicating import logistics. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are anticipated to elevate demand for European steel in the automotive sector. However, the economic climate, marked by a slowing German economy and the European Central Bank's recent interest rate cut to 3.75%, continues to suppress steel demand.

Year-to-date, Turkey's ferrous export value surged by 21.3% year-on-year to $4.16 billion, spurred by its removal from the Financial Action Task Force's "gray list." Despite this, the European steel market remains subdued, with German and Italian HRC prices falling to €629/mt and €635/mt, respectively. LME Turkey rebar and scrap prices declined, with the July 2024 rebar contract down 1.28% to $578/mt and the February and March 2025 scrap contracts decreasing by 0.89% and 0.76%, respectively. Political developments in France, including recent elections, have reduced market fears of extreme far-right policies, stabilizing stocks and the euro. Concurrently, the European natural gas market faces supply risks from potential Russian disruptions and Norwegian maintenance, with TTF prices projected to average €40/MWh in 3Q24 and €50/MWh in 4Q24 and 1Q25. Overall, the European ferrous market grapples with low demand, political uncertainties, and potential supply-side risks in the energy sector.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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