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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

Oil extended Monday’s decline due to reduced threat to crude infrastructure in Texas due to Hurricane Beryl. In ferrous markets, the largest percentage increases in prices were seen in US scrap for August and September contracts, and SGX Iron Ore for the April 2025 contract. This suggests a positive market sentiment and rising demand for these commodities. The SGX Iron Ore contracts for June, May, and February 2025 saw the largest percentage decreases in prices, indicating a downward pressure or decreased demand for these future periods. The US HRC Steel July 2024 contract is identified as the most oversold based on its low RSI value, which may indicate a potential buying opportunity or continued bearish sentiment.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

As of July 8, 2024, US HRC Steel Futures closed at $673, reflecting a 0.36% daily decline from $675.45. Benchmark HRC prices were stable, with SMU at $670/st, Platts at $665/st, Nucor at $680/st, and Cleveland-Cliffs at $720/st. Lead times slightly increased. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates significant managed short positions at 7,035 contracts, suggesting bearish sentiment, while managed long positions stood at 1,919 contracts. Commercial traders hold a net long position of 6,239 contracts, reflecting optimism or hedging activities. Technical indicators show mixed trend strengths, with the ADX ranging from 11.2 to 38.3 and RSI values between 43.09 and 50.91, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Prices are generally below the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish long-term trend but improving short-term trends. The US HRC Steel July 2024 contract is the most oversold with an RSI of 26.93, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

Iron ore futures dropped following the largest one-day decline since early June, with inventories at Chinese ports reaching a two-year high. Average daily shipments in Brazil increased in the first 15 business days of June compared to the previous year. Iron ore prices have fallen by over 20% this year, marking it as one of the worst-performing commodities. The main contract closed at 825.5 yuan/mt, a 3.34% daily decrease. Market activity was subdued, with minimal inquiries from traders and steel mills. PBF traded at 820-825 yuan/mt at Shandong port and 835 yuan/mt at Tangshan port. Global shipments last week totaled 34.32 million tons, down 2.3% from the previous week. Despite high shipment and arrival levels, molten iron production is expected to decline slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. Technical indicators show stable price trends, with MACD indicating a bullish trend and RSI values suggesting a balanced market. Prices are mostly below the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish long-term trend but short-term improvement.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

In the LME Turkish steel scrap market, prices remained steady across various commodities compared to the previous week. The LME Steel Scrap CFR Turkey (Platts) Month 2 price was $390.50 per tonne. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with the MACD suggesting some improvement and the RSI indicating a balanced market. ADX values range from 8.2 to 18, indicating weak to moderate trends. Prices consistently range from $388 to $400, with EMA values close to the last prices, indicating stable trends. DI+ ranges from 16.9 to 45.1, showing positive momentum, while DI- ranges from 22.1 to 44.8, suggesting downward pressure. Support levels indicate the lower price range, and resistance levels show higher price points. Overall, prices are generally below the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish long-term trend with some short-term improvements.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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