New Report Shows $45.5bn US Branded Coffee Shop Market Approaches Full Covid-19 Recovery

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Tue, 13 Sep 2022, 14:19

Alexis Rubinstein

Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Project Café USA 2023, World Coffee Portal’s definitive report on the US branded coffee shop market, reveals the $45.8bn segment grew 10% over the last 12 months to regain 96% of pre-pandemic market value.

The total US branded coffee chain market is now valued at $45.8bn having recovered to 96% of its pre-pandemic value. Additionally, the number of outlets has exceeded 2019 levels, increasing 2.8% over the last 12 months to reach 38,411 stores. The country’s three largest operators, Starbucks Coffee Company, Dunkin’ and Panera Bread, all increased their footprint in the US to reach 15,650, 9,262 and 2,173 stores respectively.

Most operators have achieved year-on-year growth, with 46% experiencing a sales uplift of 5% or more. Nearly half of industry leaders are optimistic about the current trading environment, with 80% positive about the sufficient growth potential for branded coffee shops in the US, compared to 63% pre-pandemic.

Starbucks continues to wield influence over the US coffee shop market, opening 302 net new stores over the last 12 months to achieve a total market share of 41%.

Dutch Bros, which operates 603 stores in the US, exceeded $1bn sales for the 12 months ended 30 June 2022. The Oregon-based company is now the fastest growing major US branded chain at 28%. Franchised drive-thru operators Scooter’s Coffee and Biggby Coffee have experienced similar growth over the last 12 months, reaching 490 and 320 stores respectively.

Desire for out-of-home coffee remains strong following two years of enforced lockdowns and operational restrictions. However, the way in which customers consume coffee continues to evolve, led by a younger demographic of clientele.

With industry leaders optimistic of future growth potential, new operators in the US will also be encouraged in their pursuits of expansion. Blank Street Coffee, for example, has opened 40 shops in New York City and Boston since launching in May 2020, more than any locally owned competitor. Backed by private equity financing, the start-up is targeting 100 locations across the US by the year’s end.

With candidates already holding perceptions of the industry as poorly paid, the emergence of cost-of-living concerns has the potential to add further strain to the staff retention crisis. Furthermore, industry leaders have cited rising inflation as the most pressing short-term concern, with operating costs expected to rise at the same time as consumer disposable income falls. These factors could compel operators to raise prices, cut operating hours or potentially close stores in the next 12 months.

Looking ahead, World Coffee Portal forecasts that US branded coffee chain store sales will exceed $55.9bn in 2027, representing 4.1% CAGR growth, as US consumer demand for premium out-of-home coffee products continues unabated.

The market is predicted to exceed 41,900 outlets by September 2027, displaying five-year growth of 1.8% CAGR. The coffee-focused segment is predicted to grow at 1.8% CAGR over the next five years to exceed 34,200 stores, while the food-focused segment is anticipated to grow at 1.6% CAGR to exceed 7,600 outlets.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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