Normal Monsoon Rains Help India’s Coffee Crop
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - On August 2, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Long-Range Forecast for rainfall during the second half (August-September) of the 2021 Southwest Monsoon. The rainfall over the country during the second half of the season is likely to be normal between 95 to 105 percent of the long period average (LPA). The cumulative rainfall for the Southwest Monsoon 2021 as of July 31, 2021, was one percent below normal.
India received monsoon rainfall volumes 9.6 percent above normal rain levels. However, by July with monsoon rains stalling, rainfall drops 6.7 percent below normal levels in most of the Indian sub-continent.
While some parts of India are seeing a rainfall deficit, rainfall has been noticeably excessive in the southern part of the Indian peninsula (27 percent above normal). This is where the majority of the country's coffee is grown.
Rainfall volume should come in between 95 to 105 percent of the long period average (LPA). The LPA (1961-2010) for the August-September period is 428.3 millimeters (mm).
The seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the country overall is likely to be normal coming in at 96 -104 percent of LPA.
In May, the USDA forecast production for the 2021/22 coffee crop to increase by 5 percent to 5.41 million 60-kilogram bags. The report noted “above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of a normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions.”
Alexis Rubinstein
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