Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Crude oil markets are unwinding much of the geopolitical premium that emerged during the recent U.S. and Middle East conflict. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has improved, reducing immediate concerns about supply disruptions and helping both WTI and Brent crude retreat toward pre-conflict price levels. Market participants are increasingly focused on macroeconomic drivers rather than geopolitical developments. The transition is reshaping expectations for energy prices and broader commodity markets as traders evaluate whether technical support levels can stabilize the decline.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, specializes in cross-asset technical and macroeconomic analysis across commodities, currencies, and precious metals. His market perspective is particularly relevant during periods when geopolitical narratives give way to broader macro forces, allowing him to assess how shifts in interest rates, currencies, and market positioning influence energy prices.
Crude oil prices are falling as markets increasingly conclude that supply disruption risks have diminished. Razan Hilal notes that WTI crude is now "recovering back to pre-war levels", highlighting how quickly conflict-driven gains have been erased. Consequently, traders are reassessing valuation frameworks that previously incorporated elevated geopolitical risk premiums. As a result, technical support zones and macroeconomic variables are regaining influence over short-term price direction. This shift suggests crude oil may remain vulnerable to further downside pressure if fresh supply concerns fail to emerge.
U.S. dollar strength is becoming an increasingly important driver of crude oil weakness. Hilal observes that "that dollar rally may also be contributing to the weakness that we're seeing on the crude oil chart right now", linking energy prices directly to broader financial market conditions. Consequently, expectations surrounding potential year-end interest rate increases are influencing oil market sentiment beyond traditional supply and demand considerations. Specifically, a stronger U.S. dollar raises the effective cost of crude oil for international buyers, potentially dampening demand. This relationship reinforces the growing importance of macroeconomic trends in determining the next major move for crude oil markets.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz sits at the heart of any U.S.-Iran deal, and without it, oil flows through the strait have kept swinging between near prewar levels and sharp drops. Lost Iranian crude revenue and the approaching U.S. midterms are adding pressure on both sides to close the gap.
October 15 – Inflation is the feature again today, with this morning’s headline September PPI surging to 6.3% year-on-year, sharply above the average analyst estimate of 5.3% and representing the hottest reading since December 2022. Furthermore, August was revised 0.2% higher to now show a 5.6% rise. In month-on-month terms, this was a 1.3% uptick, sharply above the expected 0.5% and marking the highest monthly increase since March 2022. Stripping back the more volatile food and energy sectors, the inflationary pressures were still significant. Core PPI surged 0.7% month-on-month, sharply above August’s 0.2% and the average analyst estimate of 0.3%. In year-on-year terms, core PPI was up 5.0%, well above the expected 4.4% gain and marking the highest level seen since 2023. As with the headline print, August core PPI was revised higher by 0.2% as well, now showing a 4.8% gain.
Harvest Rolls On
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
