Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 01 Apr 2026, 17:37

Today's Perspective Video: War Fears or Crop Facts?

April 1 - President Trump stated that he sees the United States exiting the Iran war in the next two to three weeks, raising hopes and easing fears on Wall Street. He is expected to address the nation to update progress in the war at 9 p.m. ET tonight. Tomorrow's markets will likely provide a response to what he says. Stocks rallied today in anticipation of his comments, supported by comments he made this morning as well, while commodity prices come under pressure for the same reasons. The VIX dropped below 24 at midday, while the dollar index traded near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.81%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $99, while Brent trades near $101 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower, along with crude oil.

Yesterday's gains turned into today's losses for the grain and oilseed complex as crude oil prices tumbled on the possibility that the Iran war will end sooner rather than later. It's largely about speculative money flow based on the perception of speculative funds regarding the risk of coming fuel and food shortages. That has these markets trading more headlines that actual supply and demand fundamentals. As our own Mike O'Dea always says, the markets don't trade what they know; they trade what they don't know. In other words, what moves the markets is the fear or hope of what might happen. The United States is overwhelmed with surplus wheat supplies currently, with U.S. hard red winter wheat stocks at nearly 60% of a full year's usage. Yet, spot hard red winter wheat futures have rallied more than a dollar this year on the possibility of global food shortages due to Iran driven fertilizer shortages that might send the world our way for our supplies, combined with dryness in the Plains that might curtail this year's crop.

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by another 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million barrels in the week ending March 27, putting them slightly above the five-year average for late March. Once again, crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day over the week, in line with the four-week average of 6.6 million barrels. That is up 12.8% from the previous year's import level over the same period. Yet, the headlines talk about how we are energy independent. Keep in mind that our existing refineries were all buillt more than 50 years ago, with many of them designed to handle the heavy crude we imported at the time, and continue to have to import today, while the shale oil fields primarily have a light crude that many of our refineries are not designed to handle. As such, we import heavy crude and we export the light crude to oversimplify it. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, leaving them still 4% above seasonal levels after importing 502K barrels per day. Distillate stocks dropped by 2.1 million barrels during the week, putting them roughly 3% below levels typically seen in late March.

Ethanol stocks dropped to 26.0 million barrels in the week ending March 27, down from 27.2 million barrels the previous week, and down from 26.6 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production declined seasonally to 1,075K barrels per day last week as some plants begin to take scheduled spring maintenance down time, down from 1,116K bpd the previous week, but up from 1,063K bpd in the same week last year. The production of fuel ethanol utilized an estimated 101.8 million bushels of corn last week, down from 105.7 million bushels the previous week, and down slightly from 102.0 million bushels the previous year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for fuel ethanol totals 3.140 billion bushels, down 19 million bushels from the previous year's pace, and 50 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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