Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 10 Apr 2023, 16:25

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 10 - Stocks came under pressure early today on rate hike worries following Friday's monthly jobs report, although some stocks are well off their session lows at this hour. There's very little sense of panic, with the VIX trading below 20, but the rate hike expectations have definitely provided some headwinds for the equity and commodity sectors this morning. The dollar index is trading near 102.8 at midday, with yields on 10-year Treasuries near 3.42% and yields on 2-year Treasuries trading near 4.02%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% lower, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed. The livestock markets have been mixed to firmer to start the week.

Grain and oilseed prices pushed solidly higher overnight, but they came under pressure as U.S. trading desks opened. Prices then firmed again into positive territory, before soybean prices slipped back into modest losses. Rising weather concerns in both the Southern and Northern Plains provided support for corn and wheat prices, along with increased geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region. Weekly export inspections were encouraging for soybeans, but they were a disappointment for both corn and wheat in this morning's report. Yet, the market traded the opposite of that, suggesting that the trade really wasn't focused on exports to any great extent today, even though those will matter more in the long-run. For now, U.S. spring weather conditions are taking on increased importance, particularly in light of the Black Sea problems.

Russia is again making threats about not extending the Ukraine grain initiative that allows exports from three approved ports via the Black Sea. Russia insists that the latest extension of the grain initiative was only for 60 days, which is only now 30 days away. As such, it's again setting the stage for another round of negotiations, adding more uncertainty to the future of corn, wheat and other products coming from Ukraine. Meanwhile, more restrictions are being placed on Ukrainian grain moving west over land into adjoining European countries to protect farmers from the cheaper Ukrainian grain overwhelming their cash markets.

USDA inspected 31.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending April 6, as shown in the graphic below, along with 24.6 million bushels of soybeans, 12.3 million bushels of wheat and 3.6 million bushels of milo. Of those totals, the portion that was inspected for shipment to China included 8.2 million bushels of corn, 10.6 million bushels of soybeans, and 2.2 million bushels of milo. Corn export shipments have become very erratic in recent weeks, despite a strengthening in sales. Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 794 million bushels, down from 1.262 billion bushels at this point last year, and 181 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, with the deficit widening this week. The opposite is true for soybeans. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.695 billion bushels, up roughly 40 million from the previous year's pace, and 60 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, with the gap widening. That trend is at risk though, considering that soybean export sales have turned quite soft in recent weeks. Sales will need to pick up if we're going to maintain the pace of shipments.

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