Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 10

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 10 Apr 2026, 17:40

April 10 - Stocks pulled back from their one-month highs as the uncertainty of the weekend approached midday, while the VIX firmed higher reflecting elevated anxiety ahead of this weekend's peace talks. Sunday night's markets could be volatile, depending on those talks. The VIX is trading near 20 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.81%, with both trading near their session highs. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $98 per barrel, while Brent trades near $97. Prices are basically consolidating just below $100 per barrel waiting to see how this weekend's peace talks in Pakistan go. The absence of war-related headlines allows corn and wheat traders to focus on their large supplies, resulting in weaker prices. The exception for wheat is the Kansas City hard red winter market that firmed on forecasts calling for drought to continue in the western third of the Plains. The soybean complex remains supported by the recently announced biofuel program, and tight soymeal exports out of Argentina due to a lack of farmer selling thus far.

The consumer sentiment index for April dropped to 47.6, which was well below the lowest analyst estimate of 50.0. The April number is down from 53.3 in March, and down from 52.2 in April of last year. The index of current economic conditions dropped to 50.1 in April, down from 55.8 the previous month, and down from 59.8 the previous year. The index of consumer expectations fell to 46.1, down from 51.7 last month, and down from 47.3 in April of last year. The drop in sentiment could be seen across all age, income and political party demographics. Consumers showed a substantial increase in concerns regarding higher prices and lower asset values. Buying interest in durable goods and vehicles deteriorated. Many consumers blamed the Iran conflict for the deterioration. It should be noted that 98% of the surveys were conducted prior to the April 7th announcement of a ceasefire. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% this month, up from 3.8% a month earlier. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, up from 3.2% previously, and the highest reading since November.

This morning's consumer price index data reflected those higher energy prices as a result of the Iran war, which I outlined in this morning's commentary. The numbers came in "as expected" for the most part, so there was little market reaction, but that doesn't ease the concern for the consumer. President Trump's risk is that those inflation concerns turn into voter concerns that end up leading him to lose Congress in November, bringing an end to much of his agenda. The economy is juiced for growth if he can bring this conflict to an end, which is the last thing that Iran wants to see happen. Iran would like to stretch this process out as long as possible, as it believes that time is on its side. The graphic below has been a popular one over the past couple of years. It shows the tendency to see a rebound in inflation following a significant spike. Note that the scales are different on the left and right axis, so a rebound in inflation doesn't necessarily imply that we're going to 15% levels like we approached in 1980, but the pattern is interesting to watch nonetheless.

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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