Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 17:04

April 17 - The war is over, or maybe it's not. There's a strong sense that we're close to the end of the Iran war in the Middle East, but I anticipate that we'll have some back and forth in headlines through the weekend, with the markets again reacting per those possible changes on Sunday night and Monday. The hope is that we're near the end of the war, and that has crude oil prices sharply lower today, with WTI trading as low as $80.56 per barrel at one point, while it is currently trading near $83 per barrel. That helped both the S&P 500 stock indices to gap higher to new record highs, while the Dow is trying to catch up. The VIX slipped briefly below 17, while the dollar index is trading is trading near 97.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped to 4.23%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.69%. The grain and oilseed markets are largely following crude oil lower today. It's all about money flow being driven by the perception of the new headlines.

This may be the first war played out on social media to the extent that we've seen, with each post impacting trade in the markets. The posts suggest that we will have another round of face-to-face negotiations this weekend at which a peace agreement framework will be agreed to in principle. In the mean time, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz, conditional on coordinating passage with it. It's yet to be determined if that means paying fees. The United States lifted its blockade of the Strait, with the exception of Iran's ports while negotiations toward the agreement continue. Iran then stated that was a violation of the ceasefire, ending the ceasefire. However, we continued to see a progression toward talk of peace, so that doesn't appear to have been a game changer. President Trump stated that Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, according to Bloomberg, although that has not yet been confirmed.

The bottom line is that it appears that ships will soon begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz once again. Crude oil tankers can start to pull supplies from the storage that filled up prior to wells being shut down. It will then take up to a month or more for some of those ships to reach their destinations for refilling empty supply lines. It's estimated that wells can be brought up to 50% production levels within two weeks. and maybe 80% in a month. That leaves a big deficit continuing to build in the global supply of crude oil. Natural gas may be similar. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production.

How much damage has been done to infrastructure; both energy and fertilizer? That will be determined in the days and weeks ahead, telling us how close to prewar levels we can expect to realistically expect production levels to reach. Will it be 70%? 90%? We don't know yet. But it will be curtailed to some degree until repairs can be done, and some of those repairs could take several years to occur. That means that price will need to lower global demand for energy and fertilizer to levels that match that level of supply, with that level yet to be determined. For energy, that means prices remaining elevated above prewar levels, perhaps even having periods of spikes as shortages continue to play out over the next several weeks. We can expect similar behavior in fertilizer. As for fertilizer, we will likely see some localized food shortages this year, but 2027 is where we more likely see a decline in global production, especially in lesser developed countries who cannot afford to pay the higher price for fertilizer. That makes the fertilizer story more of a long-term story, whereas the energy story is more of an immediate story as shortages still play out.

We are already seeing the stock market play out expectations of robust growth in the United States. The economy is primed with record M2 money supply and the incentives in the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that went into effect this year. If in fact the war is over, I anticipate that President Trump will try to reduce the number of policy surprises ahead of the midterm elections, removing uncertainty to unleash business spending and hiring, giving a lift to consumer sentiment and spending. The markets are again pricing in the possibility of a rate cut or two this year on expectations that we're going to see good growth and easing inflation pressures. It will take some time for the higher energy prices to work through the economy, likely leaving elevated inflation pressure over the next month or two or more, depending on how all of the above plays out with infrastructure damage in the Middle East, but the market is trading optimism of a brighter future today.

The grain and oilseed sector should focus more on near-term fundamentals if we continue to see this play out toward peace in the Middle East. That means a focus on Midwest planting weather, Brazil weather for finishing the corn crop, and it means a focus on the extent of lost yield in the Plains due to adverse weather - heat, cold, dryness, etc. The fertilizer shortage story will remain with us, perhaps providing an elevated floor for the market, but not necessarily a reason for a higher ceiling at this time, although that story is still being written. We should see a surge in planting activity in the Midwest next week as the pattern shifts drier. That same pattern shift is expected to bring rains over more dry areas of the Plains wheat belt, albeit with possible cold damage this weekend. Weather rallies tend to happen fast and to end fast, with results playing out over a longer period of time. The next big fundamental input to the sector will be May 12, when USDA releases its first 2026-27 marketing year balance sheets, and its first 2026 winter wheat production estimates based on actual field surveys. That will then set the tone for the summer growing season as we watch how the weather plays out.

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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