Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 2

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 02 Apr 2026, 16:58

April 2 – Traders will be keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East with markets closed for three days over Easter weekend, likely keeping volatility high into today’s close and the start of Monday’s session. Stocks have recovered from their morning lows but remain in the red at midday, while the VIX has in turn fallen from its high earlier in the session just below 28 to now hover near the 25.9 mark. The dollar has traded both sides of 100 today, up roughly 0.4% to sit at 99.95 at the time of writing. Treasuries are slightly in the red at midday, notably off their highs last week, but still relatively elevated as 10-year yields trade just below 4.31% and 2-year yields trade just below 3.80%. Crude oil continues to surge today as nearby WTI makes a fresh high since March 9^th, pushing near $114 earlier in the session but falling back to roughly $111.50/barrel (+12.75%) at the time of writing. Interestingly, WTI crude broke above Brent crude futures today, with the latter up a more modest 6.5% at the time of writing to hang in the high $107’s after trading at a premium to WTI for much of the conflict. The ags are largely mixed at midday after pushing higher earlier in the session, though both feeder and live cattle futures look to finish off a hot week on a strong note as they continue to push higher.

Britain hosted a virtual discussion regarding potential joint action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with roughly 40 countries today, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Bahrain, and the U.A.E., though the U.S. did not attend. British foreign minister Yvette Cooper was quoted, per Reuters, as saying “we have seen Iran hijack an international shipping route to hold the global economy hostage” in her opening comments to media outlets prior to the closed-doors remainder of the meeting. It will be interesting to watch how these nations, and others more directly exposed to the downstream impacts of the ongoing Strait closure, approach the situation, with today’s attendees continuing to publicly express an unwillingness to get involved militarily and instead focusing on potential direct diplomacy with Iran. Elsewhere, Argentina today expelled Iranian diplomat Mohsen Tehrani from their country in response to condemnation yesterday from Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This follows the Argentine government’s decision earlier in the week to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.

Iran doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to help make this a reality as they instead look to turn the Strait of Hormuz into something of a tollbooth, with Bloomberg reporting shippers having to pay fees in Chinese Yuan or cryptocurrencies in order to pass through the Strait. However, this is also largely limited to “friendly” countries, as attacks on ships linked to U.S. and Israeli allies continue. Iran and their cross-Strait neighbor Oman met today to discuss joint monitoring of shipping through the Strait, with Iranian Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi saying “these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route.” These comments helped stocks rebound from their lows this morning, but don’t do much to quell concerns. It’s hard to imagine the Gulf nations accepting an end to the conflict that includes a newfound toll paid to Iran to resume normal trade flows going forward, or to imagine the U.S. ending the conflict by giving a perceived win to the existing Iranian regime.

U.S. exporters sold 45.2 million bushels of old crop (‘25/’26) corn in the week ending March 26^th, right in the middle of the expected range, along with 4.0 million bushels of new crop (‘26/’27) corn, slightly higher than the top-end estimate there. Marketing year-to-date corn sales now total 2.757 billion bushels, remaining comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to surpass USDA’s record 3.3-billion-bushel export target. Weekly soybean sales of 13.0 million bushels were roughly half of the previous week’s total and came in toward the low-end of the expected range, with cumulative sales continuing to lag historical paces as well as the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.575-billion-bushel export target. Elsewhere in the soy complex, weekly soybean meal sales were solid at 377.2k metric tons, though soybean oil sales remained soft at a net 1.1k metric tons.

Net ‘25/’26 all wheat sales fell to only 0.9 million bushels, well below the low-end estimate of 7.3 million, though this was partly a reflection of the time of year we’re in, as new crop (‘26/’27) sales came in toward the top end of the expected range at 10.0 million bushels. Still, combined net all wheat sales of 10.9 million bushels were generally weak, effectively right in line with the low-end combined estimate of 11.0 million. On a more positive note, however, milo (sorghum) sales rebounded to 4.1 million bushels, a seven-week high after the notable slowdown seen in February/March. It’s also worth noting that today was the unveiling of USDA’s new export reporting system, leading to delays for many.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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