Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 24

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 16:57

April 24 – The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have both made fresh record highs today, with the former up over 1.8% at the time of writing as the tech sector surges, though the Dow Jones lags the other major indexes as it hangs slightly in the red. Obviously, we know how quickly things can change these days, especially heading into the weekend with markets closed, but the headlines moving into midday are largely optimistic about potential peace prospects. President Trump announced that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be traveling to Pakistan for renewed talks this weekend, though Vice President JD Vance is not expected to attend, as was planned last weekend. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed in a post today that he is in fact heading to Pakistan too, as well as Oman and Russia, to “coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.” So, the market appears content to hold an optimistic view for now despite passage through the Strait remaining near zero.

The VIX has pushed to its low for the week below 18.5 amid the relative sense of calm on Wall Street, though it has bounced a bit from that to hover around 18.8 at the time of writing. The dollar has quietly drifted lower into midday, erasing yesterday’s gains to trade back below the 98.6 level. Treasuries are quietly lower as well, with 10-year yields trading at 4.31% and 2-year yields trading at 3.78%. Crude oil is cooling amid the optimism around renewed peace talks too, with nearby WTI now down a bit over 3% on the day to trade around $94 while Brent is now down close to 6% to trade around $98.80 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with the grain and oilseeds mostly lower, while both feeder and live cattle futures push higher, albeit off their morning highs. For what it’s worth, it sounds like USDA Secretary Rollins will not be making any announcement regarding the reopening of the U.S. / Mexico border to feeder cattle imports in Arizona today, as she is reported to be joining Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe at an event in his state this afternoon. As such, the speculation around USDA’s next steps continues.

Perhaps the D.O.J. read this morning’s commentary, as U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced shortly after that she is closing the criminal probe of outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Jokes aside, this is a great step forward in reducing the drama surrounding the transition so we can again focus on what really matters, which is Fed policy. The announcement also helped provide further tailwinds to the market, helping keep the mood on Wall Street largely upbeat as we head into the weekend.

This morning’s consumer sentiment data provides a classic opportunity to decide whether you want to look at the proverbial glass as half empty or half full. University of Michigan released their final April Survey of Consumers data today, with the headline Index of Consumer Sentiment coming in at 49.8, up from the initial April reading of 47.6 and sharply above market expectations of a much more moderate rise to 48.0. Now here’s where the half empty versus half full conversation comes in. For the optimists, consumer sentiment just improved throughout the month of April while also coming in significantly better than expected. For the pessimists, this is still the worst reading for the index in its history, dating back to September 2008. At the end of the day, what really matters to the market is how this ultimately impacts realized consumer spending in the months ahead.

Consumer inflation expectations are on the rise, as could be expected amid the sharp jump in energy costs, with University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations cooling to 4.7% in the final reading from the 4.8% preliminary, but still representing a sharp uptick from last month’s 3.8% and marking the highest level since September. Longer-term inflation expectations jumped notably as well, with the five-year inflation expectations holding at the preliminary 3.5%, the highest since October. The graphic below summarizes this situation. Full disclosure, I’m well aware of how busy it is, but I would encourage you to take the time to examine it fully, as it provides an excellent illustration of how this market environment of rapidly changing headlines influences consumer sentiment and their forward-looking expectations.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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