Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 26 Apr 2022, 16:12

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 26 - The tech sector led the sell-off on Wall Street today, as traders brace for earnings reports from big-tech firms this week, fearing what they may say about inflation, China lockdowns, and anticipated Fed monetary policy. The VIX rallied back above 31 by midday, reflecting elevated fear levels on Wall Street. The rise correlated with commodity traders backing down a bit in their earlier buying interest, although most Ag and Energy commodities remain in the green at this hour. The dollar index posted a fresh two-year high above 102.2, while yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to 2.72% as money flowed into the safe-haven assets, with gold higher as well. Crude oil prices are trading roughly 3% higher, while the Ags were mostly higher as well.

Wheat prices led the way higher overnight following yesterday afternoon's USDA crop data. More on that later. Prices pulled back some when Stats Canada reported a 7.2% increase in wheat acreage this year, although support continues to come from the poor winter wheat ratings in the Plains. We saw more soybeans sold to China over the past 24 hours, but the oilseed complex continues to garner its greatest support from Indonesia's ban on cooking oils - most notably of RBD palm olein. It's ban was modified to allow export of crude palm oil yesterday, but that only accounts for roughly 15% of the palm oil exports. It's yet unknown how many weeks the ban will remain in place, or what changes may be made to the ban in the days and weeks ahead, but we do know that this further tightens the global edible oil supply. Global supplies of soybeans can begin to build over the coming year if the United States has a good growing season followed by more expansion of area in Brazil next year, but those are still two big uncertainties. Corn prices continue to consolidate just below contract highs amid expectations that Brazil's production will ratchet lower next month due to current dryness, combined with increased weather risks here in the States for the growing season.

Freezer stocks of beef are at a nine-year high, and they are up 54% year-on-year. Friday's cattle-on-feed report also showed that 150K more cattle were placed in March than was expected by the trade. Yet, this week's early cash trade has largely been steady with the previous week thus far, providing support for live cattle futures. Meanwhile, lean hog futures traders slashed the big premium of June hogs to the cash index in half in recent days, bringing it more in line with historical levels for this time of year. Futures also felt the pressure of a big drop in cutout values from Monday.

USDA reported Monday afternoon that just 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop rates Good to Excellent, down 3 points on the week and down 5 points over the past two weeks. The industry norm of following the percent of the crop rated Good to Excellent typically does a pretty good job of communicating yield expectations, but there are exceptions. Those exceptions come in years like the current one, when there is a lot of movement in the portion of the crop rated Fair, Poor and Very Poor. For example, 39% of the winter wheat crop is rated Poor to Very Poor currently, up two points on the week. As such, this is one of those years when I like to look at the crop's condition index score, which takes all five categories into consideration. This week's winter wheat condition index score is 271, as shown in the graphic below, down 6 points on the week. In fact, the graphic below shows that only the 1996 crop (270) boasted a lower score in the same week of the year in the 35 years that USDA has posted ratings. The condition index score for the hard red winter wheat crop specifically is 266, which is a record low for this point in the season.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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