Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 11 Aug 2026, 16:52

August 11 - Stocks drifted modestly weaker at midday amid the uncertainty of two geopolitical events that are turning into wars on commodity logistics, combined with uncertainty regarding the payout on artificial intelligence. The VIX is trading near 15 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly in negative territory ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated USDA WASDE crop report.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses' small business optimism index rose to 99.8 in July, pushing it above its 52-year average of 98.0 to an 11-month high. Eight of the 10 Optimism Index components in the survey posted gains in July, along with two decreases. The biggest item of note in the survey results was that uncertainty is rising, but so is optimism and hiring expectations. Small business owners are adapting to the current environment and making plans to expand, and that means hiring more employees. Yet, the top reported issue in the survey was the lack of availability of quality labor, with 36% of respondents reporting that they had open positions that they've been unable to fill. Twenty percent of small business owners reported that they intend to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from the June survey and a 13-month high. Fourteen percent of survey respondents indicated that inflation was their biggest business problem, down 7 points from June. One quarter of respondents expect to make capital outlays in the next six months, up from 20% in June and the highest for that index since December 2024.

Historically, USDA's August crop report was the first of the year that included corn and soybean production estimates contrived in part from objective field sampling. USDA stopped that practice for the August report a few years back, with NASS - its statistical division responsible for the production estimates - leaning on farmer surveys and satellite data alone for the August production estimate. USDA felt that the crops were not mature enough to learn much from the field sampling in the early days of August, and it was right. USDA also started to incorporate acreage data from farmer certifications in the August report last year. Remember the bearish 2.1 million-acre surprise increase for corn from a year ago? We anticipate an adjustment in acreage once again this year, but there's conflicting data regarding the direction of that adjustment. My bias is toward an additional modest shift from corn to soybeans, but we'll see.

One thing we know for sure is that there should be a change in the corn, and possibly soybean yield. That's largely because a different branch of USDA is responsible for generating the yield and production estimates for the August report, and it needs to justify its relevance amid current political pressure to improve its performance. The graphic below shows the history over the past three plus decades of yield adjustments in the August report. The market is most poised to react to the yield estimates. The average trade guess for tomorrow is 182.4 bushels per acre for corn and 52.9 bpa for soybeans, down from USDA's previous estimates of 183.0 and 53.0 bpa respectively. The August 4 StoneX customer survey pegged the crops at 184.8 and 53.0 bpa respective for corn and soybeans. StoneX customers are asked to estimate final yields in their area based on current known conditions, rather than to estimate what USDA will say in its August report.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 26

August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 13:31

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