Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Aug 2022, 17:01

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 15 - Stocks erased early losses on weak Chinese economic data to push higher by midday, despite a dose of negative data here in the States. However, the commodity sector struggled to match that recovery, although values generally came well off their lows. The VIX is back lower near 20 at midday, while the dollar index remains strong near 106.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.79%. Crude oil prices are roughly 3% lower at midday, while the grain and oilseed sector is mostly lower in continued selling.

USDA inspected 27.4 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment in the week ending August 11, along with 21.2 million bushels of corn, 13.7 million bushels of wheat and 2.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. The portion of the above that were shipped to China included 10.3 million bushels of soybeans, 10.8 million bushels of corn, 0.08 million bushels of wheat and 2.1 million bushels of grain sorghum. There are just under three weeks left in the corn and soybean marketing year. Weekly corn shipments need to average 22.8 million and soybeans 26.2 million bushels to hit USDA's current targets for the 21/22 marketing year that ends at the end of the month. Both should be able to come close, when non-inspected shipments included in the Census Bureau data are included.

The weather is changing. Much milder temperatures are expected for the bulk of the Ag Belt this week. That will help ease stress for areas of moisture shortage. Good rains are expected in some dry areas of the southwestern Corn Belt this week, with significant rains expected in dry areas of the South next week. The Midwest will largely see scattered showers, but stress will be eased for those areas missing rains with heat holding to the northwestern Ag Belt.

The housing market index produced by the National Association of Homebuilders to reflect the health of the industry fell to 49 in August, down from analyst expectations that it would remain unchanged at 55. This month's number compares to a 75 one year ago. The single-family sales index fell to 57 this month, down from 64 in July and down from 81 a year ago. The single-family six-month outlook fell to 47 this month, down from 49 in July and down from 81 a year ago. However, traffic of prospective buyers fell to 32 this month, down from 37 in July and down from 59 a year ago.

The Empire State Federal Reserve District is the first to release its manufacturing data each month. The New York district saw its manufacturing index plummet to -31.3 this month, down from +11.1 in July and well below analyst expectations that it would fall to +5. Anything below zero indicates contraction. This month's sharp decline is the second largest on record for the district, putting it among the lowest on record. Most concerning was a 36-point drop in new orders and a 50-point decline in shipments. Unfilled orders eased, while delivery times held steady. The survey indicated a small increase in employment, but that could change significantly if the above trend holds.

A much wetter outlook is developing for the South next week. SOURCE: ECMWF, WeatherBELL & Nutrien Solutions

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